Best MLB Parlay Picks Today (Marlins & Yankees Among Several Top Teams to Target)

Well, we almost pulled it off.

The San Francisco Giants blew a late lead to end our parlay party dreams on the final leg, but I'm back with a vengeance today.

There's 15 games to choose from on this glorious MLB slate, starting early this morning and taking us through the afternoon and evening.

It stormed like crazy here in Kansas City last night but luckily no tornadoes struck my block. I think it's only logical that good luck will extend to our parlay, so let's see some dollars rain down from the heavens today, shall we?

Using the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook, here are my favorite MLB parlay picks of the day:

Best MLB Parlay Picks Today

Marlins -1.5 (+105) vs Nationals

The Marlins cashed as part of last night's parlay and I'm going back to the well with perhaps the biggest pitching mismatch of the day. Sandy Alcantara is down to +700 to win the NL Cy Young as he's been one of the very best pitchers in MLB this year. Over his last five starts, Alcantara has a 0.69 ERA and Miami has won each game, including an 8-2 win over this Washington club.

He's got an obscene 22 strikeouts over his last two starts spanning 15 innings, so he's only getting better as the year goes on. Just look at this absolute monstrous MLB Statcast Pitching Profile:

Yeah, Alcantara's got the goods. Nationals' starter Josiah Gray, on the other hand, does not. He's actually pitched pretty well on the road, but his 4.97 expected ERA is among the worst starters in the NL and he struggles with command, walking 10 batters over his last 14 innings. The Marlins have the better bullpen and defense with the second-highest OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last 30 days. They should win handily once again.

Guardians (-154) vs Rangers

I'll keep banging the drum for Cleveland until my arms give out. They're 6-2 over their last eight and start Shane Bieber today, who is having a great under-the-radar season. He's had precisely one bad start, giving up seven runs to the dangerous Blue Jays, but otherwise has a 2.21 ERA over 57.1 innings. Bieber's 2.79 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) implies his performance is no fluke.

Dane Dunning has been solid for the Rangers but has a 4.91 ERA on the road and the Rangers are 1-5 in his last six starts, including three straight losses. Texas ranks 26th in OPS against right-handed pitchers on the year while the Guardians are 12th. Cleveland has the better defense and bullpen too, so they've got advantages at every level.

Trust Bieber and back the Guardians to improve to 5-1 in their last six as a home favorite.

Yankees -1.5 (+100) vs Twins

BetSided's Peter Dewey has been trying to get me to join the Yankees bandwagon, and I have to admit I'm considering it. Nestor Cortes would be my pick for AL Cy Young if the season ended today and I'm happy to back him against Minnesota.

Cortes has a 5-1 record and 1.50 ERA on the year and leads all qualified pitchers in expected ERA (2.19). He's allowed one or fewer runs in four of his last five outings and the Yankees have won five straight games he's started, including four straight by multiple runs.

Twins' starter Chris Archer's underlying metrics are as bad as Cortes' are good. Archer's 5.51 expected ERA is among the worst in MLB and Minnesota is 2-4 in his last six starts. He's lasted through the fifth inning precisely once in 10 starts, so the Twins' taxed bullpen will have pressure on them throughout the game.

With Cortes' significant advantage over Archer, the Yankees should improve to 12-2 over their last 14.

Phillies (-127) vs Brewers

I can't resist this short price to back Aaron Nola against a screaming negative regression candidate in Adrian Houser. Nola has a 3.92 ERA on the year, but his 2.80 expected ERA ranks 11th in MLB and implies he's been unlucky. He's in the 87th percentile in strikeout percentage and 95th in walk rate, so his command is still strong. All Nola needs is a larger sample size and his peripheral numbers should match up with his advanced metrics.

Adrian Houser is basically the opposite. He has a 3.51 ERA but a 4.53 expected ERA and ranks in the 23rd percentile in strikeout percentage and 28th in walk rate. Milwaukee's offense is struggling and they strike out at the fourth-highest rate in MLB, so Nola should have a field day.

The Brewers are just 1-4 in Houser's last five outings and are 1-6 over their last seven overall. Philadelphia, meanwhile, has won five straight after firing Joe Girardi and seem to be finding their grove. If this game were a month from now, I'd bet the Phillies would be much larger favorites. Let's take the value while it's here and roll with the visitors to stay hot.

Dodgers (-170) vs White Sox

The Dodgers got shut out in last night's loss and are 2-6 in their last eight, but I agree with Peter Dewey that today is a prime spot for Los Angeles to bounce back. Tony Gonsolin has been sensational this year, compiling a 6-0 record and 1.59 ERA. He hasn't allowed more than two runs in a single start and the Dodgers are 5-1 in his last six outings.

Johnny Cueto has been a fine addition for Chicago, but his expected ERA (3.86) is nearly a full run higher than his actual ERA (2.92) and the Dodgers' bats should wake up against him.

Los Angeles still has the best lineup in the sport, while the White Sox rank 26th in OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last 30 days. Cueto is in just the 17th percentile in expected batting average and the Dodgers' approach should pay dividends. Back the visitors to push Chicago to 2-6 in their last eight as a home underdog while the Dodgers improve to 12-5 in their last 17 as a road favorite.

Recap

The "Rain Some Dollars" Parlay (+1732)

• Marlins -1.5 (+105) vs Nationals

• Guardians (-154) vs Rangers

• Yankees -1.5 (+100) vs Twins

• Phillies (-127) vs Brewers

• Dodgers (-170) vs White Sox

BOOM! Is that thunder? No, just the sound of a winning Wednesday parlay! I love the value we're getting on these matchups today and I can't wait to submit my bet slip over at WynnBET.

Be sure to check out all our previews at BetSided to add your own spin, but best of luck as always and let's hope these rain drops turn to dollars.

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.