Best MLB Parlay Picks Today (Two Underdogs, Two Favorites & a Total Give Huge Value)
By Joe Summers
Music is one of my absolute favorite things. The emotions sounds can conjure up are amazing, and the euphoria I feel from a perfect chorus or verse is second to none. Shoot, I still can't listen to Brasstracks' "Always Be My Baby" cover without feeling my eyes water up in joy.
My favorite artist, the rapper JID, just released The Forever Story today. It's a magical album. Memories tie into music, and just like I'll never forget sitting in my friend's backseat when he played me Chance The Rapper's "Cocoa Butter Kisses" for the first time, I hope to always remember bumping The Forever Story while I wrote this banger of a parlay.
We've got massive value ripe for the picking on today's 15-game MLB slate, so let's make some memories, shall we? Throw on your favorite tunes while you're reading this - just trust me.
Using odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, here are my favorite MLB parlay picks of the day:
Best MLB Parlay Picks Today
Rays (+108) vs Red Sox
The Tampa Bay Rays are on a roll, winning 11 of 13, including six straight victories. Boston Red Sox starter Michael Wacha is someone I'm looking to fade moving forward, as he's been extremely lucky this season. Despite a 4.26 expected ERA, Wacha's actual ERA sits at 2.28. That's an absurd discrepancy, and the Rays are the perfect team to take advantage of Wacha's inflated value.
All three of Wacha's most-thrown pitches (4-Seam Fastball, Changeup, Cutter) have higher opponent's expected batting averages than actual opponent's batting averages, and it's not as if the Red Sox have a good defense. Take his last start, for example, when Wacha shut out the Orioles despite compiling a 4.05 expected FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching).
Wacha won't stay this lucky for long, so let's strike before regression does. The Rays have the seventh-best bullpen ERA in MLB, and I think their advantages are too overwhelming to ignore at plus odds.
Tigers vs Rangers Under 8.0 (+100)
Want to know the best betting streak going in MLB? The under in Tyler Alexander's starts. Dating back to last season, it's 11-0-2 in Anderson's last 13 outings. He hasn't allowed more than three runs in an appearance since April, and the Rangers shouldn't scare anyone off the bet given how strong the Detroit Tigers' bullpen is behind him.
Glenn Otto finally seems to be tapping into the promise he showed last season for the Texas Rangers as well. His slider is filthy, and he's got a 1.99 ERA in August. The under is 7-3 in Otto's last 10 starts, while the Tigers' punch-less lineup ranks 28th in OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last three weeks.
As a cherry on top, the under is 10-3 in Detroit's last 13 games as road underdogs. Back the best betting trend in MLB as Alexander and Otto duke it out in a surprisingly strong pitcher's duel.
Cubs First Five Innings (+125) vs Brewers
Any day we get to back Justin Steele at plus odds is a great day, indeed. He's flying under the radar a bit, but make no mistake: Steele is among MLB's most dominant starters right now.
After limiting these same Milwaukee Brewers to two hits over six shutout innings last week, Steele has a 0.79 ERA this month and didn't allow an earned run in four of his last five starts. He's had an expected FIP below 3.43 in five straight starts, with three of those outings under 1.60.
Meanwhile, Freddy Peralta looks solid but posted an expected FIP above 3.86 in each of his last four starts, with two above 5.12.
Chicago's bullpen worries me, but Steele has a huge, actionable advantage over Peralta in the first five innings. At plus odds, I'm thrilled to back one of MLB's elite pitchers against an offense that ranks just 24th in OPS against left-handed pitchers this month.
Braves (-147) vs Cardinals
It's been a while since I was working when Spencer Strider started, so I'm not missing this opportunity to back my favorite young pitcher. In Strider's last 10 starts, he's allowed one earned run or fewer eight times. That includes six shutout innings against these St. Louis Cardinals in which he struck out 12, so the red birds' ferocious lineup doesn't scare him.
He's legitimately been one of MLB's best pitchers. The Atlanta Braves have nine straight wins as road favorites and should tee off on Jose Quintana, who is struggling with command and lasted just 2.2 innings against Arizona last week. He gave up seven hits and four runs in those eight outs, and Atlanta's lineup is much more formidable than Arizona's.
Quintana had a 7.60 expected FIP in that start and a 5.17 mark in his start before that, while Strider hasn't had an expected FIP above 4.09 since early June. Back Strider to keep rolling with the Braves hand Quintana his first loss as a Cardinal.
Guardians (-108) vs Mariners
I'm getting greedy with five games on this parlay, but I can't help it with the fiery passion of JID's vocals blasting through these headphones.
Cleveland Guardians' starter Shane Bieber has a 1.63 ERA in his last five starts with an expected FIP below 2.53 in four of those. He's been fantastic, and the surging Guardians are 8-2 in their last 10 games on the road.
The Seattle Mariners lost five of Logan Gilbert's last six starts as he's compiled a 7.97 ERA this month, issuing four walks twice in his last four outings. He's in the third percentile in average exit velocity and 25th in expected batting average, so I expect Cleveland to make him pay with its contact-heavy approach.
In Gilbert's four most recent starts, he's posted an expected FIP of 5.41, 8.38 and 7.09. He compiled a strong 2.99 mark against Oakland, but the Athletics' little-league lineup is hardly on the same tier as the Guardians'.
Look for Cleveland's road success to continue as Bieber shines.
MLB Parlay for August 26, 2022
The "Music is a Beautiful Thing" Parlay (+2929)
- Rays (+108) vs Red Sox
- Tigers vs Rangers Under 8.0 (+100)
- Cubs First Five Innings (+125) vs Brewers
- Braves (-147) vs Cardinals
- Guardians (-108) vs Mariners
Oh, baby! We're not messing around today. Odds of +2929 pay out $732.24 on a $25 bet at WynnBET, and I love the value in each game.
If you're not ready to run through a wall because you're not listening to JID, then parlaying the Cubs, Braves and Guardians still has +628 odds, a lovely consolation prize.
Whichever direction you choose, I wish you the best of luck. Let's get after it. Bump some strong tunes today while you're cashing these picks.
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.