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Best MLB Player Props Today: Predictions for Bryce Harper, Pavin Smith on Thursday

Bryce Harper and Pavin Smith aren't putting up the greatest numbers recently, but these two stats show why they're in great spots on Thursday.

By Gage Bridgford

Bryce Harper celebrates a home run
Bryce Harper celebrates a home run / Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images
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The MLB season is winding down, and we’re nearing the final baseball plays for this column. For today, we’re going to one of the biggest stars in the game in Bryce Harper of the Philadelphia Phillies. Our second play is targeting an Arizona Diamondback in outfielder Pavin Smith.

Well, Tuesday was unfortunately another dud, and both plays of course hit the following day. It seems like we’ve been having that sort of luck a lot recently. Shohei Ohtani went to the plate five times on Tuesday, but he reached base just one time, which happened to be a home run. In the Salvador Perez department, he had just one hit, but it failed to score a run. He got one other opportunity to drive in a run in the 10th inning, but he failed to come through.

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MLB Best Bets Today

  • Bryce Harper O0.5 RBIs (+160) - .50 Units FanDuel
  • Pavin Smith O1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+110) - 1 Unit BetMGM

Bryce Harper O0.5 RBIs (+160) FanDuel

Harper has been one of the best players in baseball since he made his debut back in 2012. After slumping a bit in the month of July, he’s really turned things on over the last month and a half with a .311 batting average since the start of August. For the year, he has a .905 OPS with 21 of his 29 home runs against right-handed pitchers, and he’s sitting at a 1.087 overall over the last week. Now, he gets a matchup that he’s loved in the past.

The New York Mets are sending right-hander Luis Severino to the bump for tonight’s contest. In three plate appearances against Severino, Harper has two hits, both of which were home runs. Severino has been solid this year with a 3.77 ERA through 29 starts, but he’s been a bit susceptible to left-handed batters. Lefties have hit 15 of the 21 home runs that he has allowed, and they’re batting .261 compared to .217 for righties. Harper has the power to crush one out on his own, or he can just drive one of the guys in front of him in with a ball in the gap.  

Pavin Smith O1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+110) BetMGM

Over the last week, one of the best hitters in baseball has been Pavin Smith of the Diamondbacks. He is fourth in OPS over that stretch among qualified hitters, and he’s cleared this line in four of his last five games. One of the main ways that he’s been helping himself has been his ability to get on base via the walk. He has five walks over his last three games. That goes along with his four hits during that stretch. All year, Smith has been loving his matchups with right-handed pitchers. He’s batting .302 with a .953 OPS against them. He’s also hit six of his seven home runs off of them.

Similar to Harper, Smith has had a lot of previous success in his pitching matchup for tonight in the form of Tobias Myers. Smith has two hits in three plate appearances against him. As a whole, the Diamondbacks have a .308 batting average against Myers in 26 plate appearances. Myers has been strong in his rookie season, but he does still have occasional struggles with lefties. Right-handers are batting .219 with a .632 OPS against him this season, but lefties see their numbers jump to .268 and .752. They also have nine more walks and 19 fewer strikeouts despite having just five more plate appearances.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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