Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for April 16 (Back Grayson Rodriguez, Reynaldo Lopez)
Some big names are injured, but quality pitching is still available.
Just short of three weeks into the 2024 MLB season and some of the biggest name pitchers, including Spencer Strider, Gerrit Cole and Justin Steele are on the shelf, making it more difficult to select games for our quality start initiative.
Getting a quality start still means something, though, as teams are winning 68% of the time when their starter provides quality and if one team gets a quality start and the other doesn't that jumps to 76% for the team with the quality start in 2024.
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I haven't been very good at this so far during the season, so sit back, relax and let me earn your trust moving forward.
Season Record: 8-13 Net Units: -6.63
Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles
The Twins are off to a sluggish 6-9 start and will face young Grayson Rodriquez in Baltimore.
In his three 2024 starts Rodriguez has two quality starts and another start where he missed a quality start by a single out, the Orioles are 3-0 when he starts and are averaging nine runs per start.
PICK: Orioles Money Line -166
Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies
Ranger Suarez gave up three runs in five innings in his first start of the season against the Braves, but has followed that up with a pair of quality starts against Washington and Pittsburgh, the latter of which covered six innings of two-hit, shutout ball.
The Phillies are 3-0 in Suarez's three starts.
The juice (-247) necessitates taking the Run Line, but the Phillies can score in bunches and after all, it's the Rockies on the road.
PICK: Phillies Run Line -1.5 -120
Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have been living on thin ice, but it hasn't been due to Aaron Civale, who has given up a total of four earned runs across 17 innings, including two quality starts.
Last time out Civale pitched five innings against the Angels in Anaheim, giving up two earned runs in a 6-4 win.
The Angels are familiar with Civale, but he'll be battling Jose Soriano who will be making his second Major League start and the game is in Tampa.
PICK: Rays Money Line -162
Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros
Once upon a time Hunter Brown showed so much promise, but that's fallen apart to the tune of a 3-8 record and 9.37 ERA over his last 14 starts (since Aug. 4 of last season) and last time out Brown gave up 11 hits without making it out of the first inning against the Royals.
On the flip side, the Braves Reynaldo Lopez has given up a single run across 12 innings in 2024, throwing quality starts against the White Sox and Mets.
Even if Brown manages to hold the Braves down, the Astros bullpen has a 5.45 ERA in 2024 and they used five relievers to varying degrees last night, playing into Atlanta's powerful offense late in this one, similarly to last night.
PICK: Braves Run Line -1.5 +126
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