MLB Regression Report for April 15: Yankees Roll On, Rays, Jays Defy Odds

Three AL East teams top list of teams most likely to regress
Apr 6, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo (48) celebrates with
Apr 6, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo (48) celebrates with / Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

We're just over two weeks into the MLB season and while it can still be classified as early, the New York Yankees are making a statement, even without ace Gerrit Cole.

The Yankees went 4-2 last week, taking a doubleheader from the Guardians and outscoring their opponents 30-19.

Alas, the Bombers did lose a one-run game, but are 6-1 in one-run contests on the season and that mark has helped Aaron Boone's charges stay near the top of the regression report, along with two of their AL East rivals.

The Tampa Rays also went 4-2 last week, but they were outscored by five runs in the process, suggesting a bit of luck was involved and the Rays .563 winning percentage (9-7) while being outscored by 14 runs on the season is unsustainable.

But for now, Tampa takes the "Living the High Life" team of the week title away from the Yankees.

Similarly, the 8-8 Blue Jays have been outscored by 18 runs and have to consider themselves lucky to be at .500.

This week's "They Are What Their Record Says They Are" award is a tie between the Washington Nationals and St. Louis Cardinals, who both have records and run differentials that mesh perfectly.

The Nationals are 6-9 with a -14 run differential, while the Cardinals are 7-9 and have been outscored by 9 runs.

Just as we don't want to overreact to the teams exceeding expectations, we also shouldn't overreact to the teams on the other end of the spectrum.

That said, it's difficult to not mention the Chicago White Sox who had a 1-5 week and now find themselves at 2-13 and down 51 runs, being outscored by an average of 3.4 runs per game.

Last week I suggested the Diamondbacks had the most upside despite their 4-6 record to start the season and that was true, at least to some extent, as the Snakes went 4-2 on the week.

Still, Arizona has underperformed the most in the win column on the season, almost a full game below were they should be and for the second consecutive week they earn the "It Ain't Over Till It's Over" award.

What is the MLB Regression Report?

The MLB Regression Report uses a modified Pythagorean Theorem for Baseball formula that includes a team's record in calculating expected wins.

The numbers in "Wins over Expected" column are small at this early stage, but will increase or decrement over the season as appropriate.

It is designed to assist in identifying teams that are either over or underperforming in win-loss records based on run differential and actual wins and losses on the field.

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