Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for April 23 (Back Rodriguez and Webb)
Last week was somewhat of "get right" week for the Counting on Quality picks and while we'll take a 5-1 record most weeks, that one loss still gnaws at me, like it would for most bettors.
So close to a perfect week and so close to a winning record only to fall a run short.
Such is the life of an MLB bettor.
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Season Record: 13-14 Net Units: -3.45
I'm feeling confident in the process and excited about the matchups I've uncovered for today's slate, so let's get right to it with a couple of games on the West Coast.
Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels
In four starts this season Orioles right-hander Grayson Rodriguez has three quality starts, while missing a fourth by a single out, while the Orioles have gone 4-0 in those games.
In Rodriquez's first start of the season, he held the Angels to 1 run (a Taylor Ward home run) and four hits over six innings as the Orioles blasted Los Angeles, 13-4.
The opposing pitcher that day was none other than Tuesday starter, Griffin Canning, whom the Orioles tattooed for seven hits and five runs in five innings.
The Orioles offense sits at a close second to Atlanta in wRC+ and 14 of the 15 Baltimore wins have come by more than one run, as have 11 of the Angels 14 losses.
PICK: Orioles Run Line -1.5 +108
New York Mets at San Francisco Giants
If Logan Webb was on a different team he'd likely be one of our quality start All-Stars from 2023, as the Giants righty threw an amazing 24 quality starts over the course of 33 total starts.
The problem was the Giants only won 13 of those 24 games causing me to shy away unless the opportunity was right.
Luis Severino has been stronger than I expected for the Mets, but he's only reached the sixth inning one time in four outings with the Mets going 2-2 when he starts, including an 0-2 mark on the road.
I happened upon Webb's last performance against Arizona Thursday and watched him saw off bat after bat as harmless ground ball after ground ball was handled by the Giants infield.
Twenty-one outs later the Diamondbacks had two hits, 0 runs and 14 ground balls.
It was a thing of beauty.
The game before that (Tampa) Webb induced 14 ground balls when giving up one run over seven innings and the game before that (San Diego) it was two runs and 15 ground balls in seven innings.
On the season, Webb has four quality starts in five outings and the Giants are 3-1 in those games and 2-0 at home when getting a quality start from Webb, with the bullpen blowing a save in the other.
The Mets bullpen is fifth in ERA, second in FIP and first in WAR, so this is strictly a Money Line play and one I'd make for no other Giants starting pitcher.
PICK: Giants Money Line -155
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