Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for April 19 (Back Freddy Peralta and Brewers)
Fresh off the best group of picks this season, there's a tendency to feel like you're on a hot streak and force picks that you otherwise might not make.
In the end, these picks should be about the data, in particular, quality start date, and the picks should stand on their own.
Sure, there's bound to be some bias in there one way or the other, but I do my best to limit it and explain why the data has driven me to one side or the other.
Tuesday's successful outcome has improved my record and decreased my deficit, but there's still plenty of work to do.
Season Record: 12-13 Net Units: -3.31
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Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins prediction
I began the research for this game leaning towards Jack Flaherty and the Tigers, knowing that Flaherty threw a quality start last time out against the Twins in a 4-3 Tigers win and that was his second quality start in three total starts in 2024.
Flaherty met the definition of a quality start that day, but he wasn't overwhelming, giving up 6 hits and 3 runs, along with 2 walks in six and a third inning.
On the flip side, the Tigers will be facing Joe Ryan, who pitched against them in that very same series, giving up just 1 earned run in six innings in a Twins win.
Ryan has a much better quality start history, hitting just under 50% last season and two of three this season, missing the other start by just two outs.
As a bonus, Detroit played a home game on Thursday, which turned into a back-and-forth affair where they used five relievers and then had to travel, while the Twins were enjoying an off day.
PICK: Twins Money Line -138
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals prediction
Freddy Peralta racked up 16 quality starts a season ago and has picked up right where he left off, registering two so far this season and missing a third by a single out.
The Brewers have won all three of his starts, including two on the road, and are averaging 6.84 runs per 27 outs in Peralta starts.
Last time out, Peralta shut down the vaunted Orioles lineup, giving up just one run (a home run) in six innings.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals are starting veteran Kyle Gibson, who has given up 11 runs in his last 12 innings, including 7 to a putrid Miami Marlins team.
Current Brewers are hitting .267 off Gibson and slugging .556 with an xwOBA of .356.
The sample sizes are tiny, but the Cardinals are .500 at home and the Brewers are 7-2 on the road.
PICK: Brewers Money Line -116
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