Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for August 20: (Back Berrios and Wheeler)
All in all it's been a decent last couple of weeks for the Counting on Quality picks, with a record of 7-3 over our last 10 picks including a 1-1 day last Friday.
Not great, but not bad and in this business, it's always wise to focus on the present rather than the past, so let's get to today's picks.
Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction and Pick
Jose Berrios is an enigma wrapped in a riddle.
Berrios' 11-9 record and 3.85 record for a not-very-good Blue Jay team look good enough, but he really shines in the quality start department, having thrown 15 in 25 starts for a 60% frequency.
But when you look at his advanced metrics things get dicey. His xERA is 5.00 and his strikeout % and hard hit % are ugly.
Berrios got roughed up by the Yankees in early August, but since then has two quality starts, allowing just 2 earned runs over 14 innings to the A's and Angels.
Carson Spiers is listed as the starter for Cincinnati and while Spiers has had some moments, he's been inconsistent at best and this could very well end up being a bullpen day for the Reds.
Typically, that would be a huge advantage to Cincinnati, but they used four arms last night, three of them for at least an inning.
Still, the Toronto pen has been a liability all season and a matchup of bullpens is not something that favors the Jays, so I'm headed to a first 5 angle on this one.
Finally, the Blue Jays are 16-9 in Berrios starts, averaging 4.36 runs in those contests.
PICK: Blue Jays Money Line F5 -145
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction and Pick
I haven't had much luck betting on Zach Wheeler and the Phillies this season, but that's where having a process theoretically fits in.
Believing in the process is the biggest part of the battle and I believe Wheeler is a much better pitcher than Reynaldo Lopez and the Phillies are a better team currently.
Wheeler is another interesting case as he has 18 quality starts in 24 outings (75%), but the Phillies are only 14-10 in games he has started.
Lopez is coming off a IL stint and will be making his first start since July 28 after experiencing soreness in his forearm.
When fully healthy Lopez is a pitcher I like and that shows in his 10 quality starts in 19 outings - he's been better than he generally gets credit for.
Whether he's completely healthy remains to be seen, but either way the Phillies have an advantage in starting pitchers in this game and the Atlanta offense has been decimated by injuries.
PICK: Phillies Money Line -135
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.