Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for August 16: (Back Burnes and Woods-Richardson)
On a typical Tuesday or Friday, I have multiple ace starting pitchers to choose from when putting together picks for that day.
In one sense, the same is true for today, as Aaron Nola, Paul Skenes and Logan Gilbert are all scheduled to take the mound.
Unfortunately, most of these are "no bets" for one reason or another, such as Skenes and Gilbert facing each other and the number on Nola and the Phillies being out of my comfort zone.
I still managed to find a couple of games I'm comfortable with as I look to continue my recent modest successful results.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction and Pick
My results with Corbin Burnes and the Orioles have been hit or miss in 2024, so I started a little gun-shy on this pick, but reason won me over.
Despite the narrative that Burnes is not the pitcher he once was, he has 19 quality starts in 24 outings in 2024, the Orioles average 5.74 runs and are 17-7 in those games.
Burnes has quality outings in seven of his last eight starts and the Orioles are 6-2 in those games, with five coming by multiple runs.
The Red Sox are countering with Cooper Criswell, who has one quality starts in 13 starts on the season.
With the Money Line at -193, I'm going to go the Run Line on this one, getting plus money if the Orioles can manage to win by two or more.
There's always the chance the Orioles could win by one and I lose this bet, but those odds are relatively low (about 20%) given the difference between -193 and +108.
The Orioles are the better team, with the better starting pitcher, playing at home in the middle of a pennant chase.
I like the Birds chances.
PICK: Orioles Run Line -1.5 +108
Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers Prediction and Pick
Neither of these two starting pitchers is lighting it up with Simeon Woods-Richardson throwing quality in seven of 20 starts, while Andrew Heaney has done so only six of 23 times out.
We've waited all season for the Rangers offense to get on track, but it doesn't appear that it's going to happen. After a year where multiple players had career years that led to a World Series title, several Rangers are now either injured or suffering through bad seasons or in some cases both.
Simply put, this isn't the same Rangers offense as 2023.
Minnesota is dealing with some injuries of their own, but they still have enough to get the job done, ranking in the top eight offenses in the league in on-base percentage, OPS, OPS+, slugging and runs scored.
In addition, I like the Minnesota bullpen more than Texas', with the huge caveat that Jhoan Duran has thrown 40 pitches over the last two days.
Texas has the feel of a team that's playing out the string, while Minnesota is battling for every win in the tough American League Central race.
That's hard to quantify and while I understand why some see the Rangers as the favorite, I'm going a bit contrarian on this one and see this as getting the better team at a bargain price.
PICK: Twins Money Line -105
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.