Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for August 13: (Back Greene and Skubal)
The grind continues with two picks today, one involving a former top draft pick and prospect who's finally having a breakout season and another that revolves around a matchup of star pitchers in which one has a sizable advantage.
Tuesday's betting previews will focus on some Cy Young candidates, including Cincinnati Reds' flamethrower Hunter Greene and Tigers' ace Tarik Skubal.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction and Pick
Before being traded to the St. Louis Cardinals, Erik Fedde was a solid starter for the woeful White Sox, tossing 10 quality starts in 21 outings in his time on the Southside.
The 31-year-old righthander's two starts as a Cardinal have been up and down, first allowing five earned runs in five innings in a loss to the Cubs, before tossing five one-run innings in a win over the Rays.
Fedde will be opposed by Hunter Greene, the former No. 2 overall pick, who looks like he's finally come into his own in 2024.
Greene ended June with a 5-4 record and 3.70 ERA, which are not terrible numbers, but he really took off in July, giving a single run across 27 innings pitched, while striking out 29, walking eight and allowing just nine hits.
Two additional quality starts in August bring Greene's total to 12 on the season and his ERA has dropped to 2.90.
Throughout the season, Greene has been better on the road, but his three most recent home starts have totaled 19 innings and a single earned run.
I'm also off the Cardinals train, believing they'll continue to fade (10-13 since All-Star break) in the second half
PICK: Reds Money Line -135
Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers
On the face of it, this looks like a really good matchup between two top-notch arms and potentially a pitcher's duel, but I believe Tarik Skubal has a sizable advantage.
Not only does he get to face the woeful Mariner offense, but Skubal i s7-1, with a 2.41 ERA in Detroit with opponents slashing just .182/.239/.275 off of him in 11 home starts.
The Tigers are no offensive juggernaut either, but Detroit has averaged 5.14 runs in Skubal starts and are 8-3 in his 11 starts in the Motor City.
I've backed George Kirby multiple times this season with mixed results and his ERA is almost three-quarters of a run lower at home than on the road.
Not only that, but Detroit just got to him for three runs on seven hits, including two home runs, last week in Seattle in a 6-2 Tiger win.
Finally, the Mariners have averaged just 3.32 runs and have a 10-14 record in Kirby starts, including a 4-9 mark on the road.
PICK: Tigers Money Line -115
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.