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MLB Regression Report: Fade Rays and Cardinals, Back Reds and Astros in Second Half

Projecting the second half for four MLB teams in playoff contention.

By Marty Coleman

Cincinnati Reds right fielder Rece Hinds (77) hits his second home run of the game in the sixth inning of the MLB National League game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Miami Marlins at Great American Ball Park in downtown Cincinnati on Saturday, July 13, 2024. The Reds led 1-0 after two innings. The Reds won 10-6.
Cincinnati Reds right fielder Rece Hinds (77) hits his second home run of the game in the sixth inning of the MLB National League game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Miami Marlins at Great American Ball Park in downtown Cincinnati on Saturday, July 13, 2024. The Reds led 1-0 after two innings. The Reds won 10-6. / Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY
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Each week in this space we recap the previous week and hand out awards to the team that had the best week ("Living The High Life" award), are where they should be in the standings ("They Are What Their Record Says They Are") or still have a punchers chance (It Ain't Over Till It's Over).

We'll be back with that next week, but this week, a little something different as we identify teams you should fade and back post-All-Star break.

Fade Tampa Bay Rays Post-All-Star Break

The Rays continue to amaze entering the All-Star break at 48-48 despite being outscored by 63 runs, in part thanks to a 17-9 record in one-run games.

According to ESPN Tampa's expected record is 41-55, a full seven games below their actual record.

The Regression Report is a little gentler on the Rays, suggesting they have played to a 45-win total through the break.

Still, this is the team with the largest discrepancy between their actual record and expected record in the league.

In a division with the Yankees, Orioles and Red Sox upward mobility will not likely be easy, but we'll find out relatively soon after the break with this schedule: at Yankees (4), at Blue Jays (3), Cincinnati (3), Miami (2), at Houston (3), at St. Louis (3), Baltimore (3) and Houston (3).

Given the metrics and schedule, I project the Rays closer to 76 wins.

Can St. Louis Cardinals Hold On to Wild Card Spot?

The St. Louis Cardinals are 50-46 and hold the second National League Wild Card spot and are only 4.5 games behind the Brewers in the National League Central, despite being outscored by 38 runs.

The Cardinals, too have been good in one-run games going 18-12, meaning almost one of every three games St. Louis has played has been decided by a single run.

That's living on the edge.

Just last season the Cardinals were 17-26 in one-run games and in 2022 they were 26-17 in one-run contests, so this could very well be an up year in the never-ending yo-yo to the mean.

However, their mediocre offensive numbers (18th in OPS+, 18th in OBP, 20th in SLG) have my projections closer to 80 wins, rather than the 84 they are on pace for.

Don't be surprised if St. Louis misses the playoffs.

Why Are We Still Talking About the Cincinnati Reds?

This will be the third consecutive week I've written something about the Reds and while they just completed a 5-2 week, it should have been 6-1 minimum.

That said, the Reds find themselves just three games out of the final Wild Card spot at the break and now have another young budding star in the lineup in Rece Hinds.

The youth leads to volatility, but at 47-50 the Regression Report indicates they've played to a record closer to 50-47.

An 8-18 record in one-run games will have to improve, but Cincinnati is not that far away and I project the Reds to finish at or above the .500 mark, passing the Cardinals at some point.

Houston Astros Closing In, but It's More About Mariners Offense

The Houston Astros finished 17-6 in their last 23 games before the break and sit one game behind the Seattle Mariners, despite playing without a chunk of their starting rotation for most of the season and superstar Kyle Tucker for the last five weeks.

This isn't the Astros juggernaut of the past, but Seattle's offense is so bad the Mariners can't overcome incredible starting pitching.

This is an extremely close division and the Astros start the second half with three huge games in Seattle that could change the direction quickly.

Seattle General Manager Jerry DiPoto also wheels and deals seemingly every season at the trade deadline so this is certainly a fluid situation, but as it stands today, I project the Astros to edge out the Mariners and Seattle to miss the playoffs entirely.

What is the MLB Regression Report?

The MLB Regression Report uses a modified Pythagorean Theorem for Baseball formula that includes a team's record in calculating expected wins.

The numbers in "Wins over Expected" column will increase or decrease over the season as appropriate.

It is designed to assist in identifying teams that are either over or underperforming in win-loss records based on run differential and actual wins and losses on the field.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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