MLB Regression Report: Boston Red Sox Improve Playoff Position with Big Week, Padres, Reds in Wild Card Hunt

Circumstances have led me to spend a lot of time in this space writing about American League teams, and we'll start with one this week, but take heart National League fans, most of this week's MLB Regression Report is for you.

Boston Red Sox State Playoff Case with Series Win in the Bronx

For most of the season the talk of the American League East has been the Yankees and Orioles as those teams battled each other at the top, while everyone else fought for leftovers.

For their part, the Red Sox hung around the .500 mark for weeks. They were 10-10, 19-19, 30-30 and 35-35 at various points.

From that point forward, Alex Cora's team has gone 19-10, culminating that run with a series win over the Yankees in New York over the weekend and find themselves 7.5 games back with a week to go before the All-Star Break.

With the Yankees and the Orioles ahead of them, the likely path for Boston is a Wild Card spot and their recent surge has the Sox in the third and final Wild Card spot, 1.5 games ahead of the Royals.

A 5-1 week, with a series win on the road in New York earns the Red Sox our "Living the High Life" award this week.

San Diego Padres Pushing for National League Wild Card Spot

Even with all the injuries the Dodgers have sustained, the chances of the Padres catching Los Angeles in the National League West isn't very good, sitting at 5.1% per FanGraphs.

But the Padres hold a two-game lead over the Diamondbacks and Mets for the third National League Wild Card spot, with a 49-45 record and this is a good offensive team, good enough to earn our "They Are What Their Record Says They Are" award this week.

The regression report suggests all three teams are viable contenders for the final spot, but the Padres currently have the advantage as the Mets and Diamondbacks hover at .500.

Opportunity Ahead for Cincinnati Reds

I mentioned the Reds last week as an intriguing Wild Card candidate, but it was a mediocre week for Cincinnati, going 3-3 and finding themselves 10.5 games out in the National League Central and five games out of the final National League Wild Card.

This week the Reds have seven games against the Rockies and Marlins, with all seven scheduled to be played in Cincinnati.

Neither the Rockies nor Marlins are very good, but they are particularly bad on the road, with Colorado coming in at 12-31 away from Coors Field and Miami at 14-27 away from home.

When the All-Star Break hits the Reds will be 97 games into the season and while this week may not be the proverbial "make or break" stretch, the Reds should certainly improve their position.

Sometimes winning our "It Ain't Over Till It's Over" award is a good thing, but winning it two weeks in a row, as the Reds have done, can be perceived as a warning sign that the season is slipping away.

What is the MLB Regression Report?

The MLB Regression Report uses a modified Pythagorean Theorem for Baseball formula that includes a team's record in calculating expected wins.

The numbers in "Wins over Expected" column are small at this early stage, but will increase or decrement over the season as appropriate.

It is designed to assist in identifying teams that are either over or underperforming in win-loss records based on run differential and actual wins and losses on the field.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.