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MLB Regression Report: Astros Make Move in AL West, Brewers Control NL Central

Houston closes in on Mariners and Brewers keep winning despite rotation challenges

By Marty Coleman

Jun 20, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Houston Astros outfielder Yordan Alvarez (44) hits a home run against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning at Guaranteed Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 20, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Houston Astros outfielder Yordan Alvarez (44) hits a home run against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning at Guaranteed Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports / Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports
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This isn't the first time we've discussed the Houston Astros and it likely won't be the last, and while it may seem like a lot of focus on a team that just topped the .500 mark for the first time this season, it's been a fascinating half season for the one-time powerhouse organization.

After repeatedly finding ways to lose through the first two months of the season, while sustaining devastating injuries to pitcher after pitcher, Joe Espada's club found their way in June, accumulating MLB's best record at 17-8.

Houston Astros Dominate Since Being Shut Out by Lowly White Sox

Since the Astros shutout loss on June 18th to the White Sox, the team is 9-1 and have shaved 6.5 games off the Mariners lead as Seattle has struggled to a 3-8 mark during that time.

What's even more encouraging for the Astros is the fact that the latest MLB Regression report indicates there is still room for the Astros to grow, while the Mariners sit atop the league in the teams that are ripe for negative regression.

The Mariners pitching means they are likely in it for the long haul, but a few short weeks ago the Astros were ninth in the AL Wild Card race and they woke up in Toronto this morning with just two teams in front of them and 3.5 games out of the last spot.

Houston wins our "Living the High Life Award" for this week.

Milwaukee Brewers Dominating "Balanced" NL Central

I've gotten a kick out of the seemingly endless talk about how "balanced" and fun the NL Central is.

Sure, if you're looking at the race for second place it could be seen as balanced, but balanced doesn't necessarily equal good and all the Brewers do is keep winning, despite throwing out the likes of Dallas Keuchel in their starting rotation.

The Brew Crew went 5-1 last week and are 6.5 games up on the St. Louis Cardinals as July dawns.

Can they sustain this through 162 games? I don't know, but they earned our "They Are What Their Record Says They Are" team of the week.

Cincinnati Reds Are An Intriguing Wild Card Candidate

At 11 games back, I don't consider the Reds a threat to the Brewers in the NL Central at this point of the season, but a quick look at the Wild Card standings finds the Reds only 4.5 games out of the final spot.

The Reds sit at the very bottom of the latest regression report, meaning they are primed for some positive regression and have an opportunity to close that gap.

There are a lot of teams to climb over to get there, but the margin is certainly not impossible to overcome and for those reasons, the Reds are our "It Ain't Over Till It's Over" team of the week.

What is the MLB Regression Report?

The MLB Regression Report uses a modified Pythagorean Theorem for Baseball formula that includes a team's record in calculating expected wins.

The numbers in "Wins over Expected" column are small at this early stage, but will increase or decrement over the season as appropriate.

It is designed to assist in identifying teams that are either over or underperforming in win-loss records based on run differential and actual wins and losses on the field.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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