MLB Regression Report: Braves Step Up, Astros Take Advantage; Red Sox and Guardians Roll On

Four teams, the Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros and Cleveland Guardians, went 5-1 on the week, but Atlanta stood out by sweeping the Detroit Tigers at home and then taking two of three in New York against the suddenly injury-riddled Yankees.

Atlanta Braves Not Done Yet

Atlanta's pitchers held the Tigers to two runs in the three-game series and then held the Yankees to one run in two of three games, giving up eight in the other, to finish the week, allowing just 12 runs over six games, while scoring 25.

In the process, the Braves earned our "Living the High Life" award for the week, but they're going to need more weeks like that if they hope to close the seven-game lead of the Philadelphia Phillies.

Orioles Swept in Houston, but Remain in Thick of AL East Race

The Orioles were swept in Houston and while that's never a good thing, Baltimore is a good-looking young club and they aren't doing it with smoke and mirrors, but rather power, speed and pitching, earning this week's "They Are What Their Record Says They Are" award.

Their record says the Orioles are 49-28 and they look every bit of that, and I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up as the American League East Champions when all is said and done.

Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Guardians Roll On

We suggested last week that the Red Sox had a favorable schedule ahead and one week later, that looks prophetic.

The Yankees and Orioles have been getting a ton of press, but no one seems to be talking about the Guardians who are currently on a 106-win pace.

Houston Astros Get Off Deck, Close Gap in AL West

Things looked bleak on Tuesday when the Astros were shut down by White Sox rookie Jonathan Cannon, dropping the proud franchise to 33-40 on the season.

The defending American League West Champions got off the deck and eked out a win on Thursday to take the series before heading home to face a dominant Orioles team playing close to .667 ball when the series began.

The Astros found the switch manager Joe Espada's been looking for all season, getting quality starts from Ronel Blanco and Framber Valdez and just enough from a beleaguered bullpen and clutch hits that have been missing all year.

Houston shaved four games off the Mariners lead since falling 10 games behind after Tuesday's loss in Chicago (and netted three games for the week) and won our "It Ain't Over Till It's Over" award of the week.

The regression report not only shows there's still room for Houston to make a move in the American League West, but also the Mariners may still be overvalued a tad.

With the Rangers getting healthier and the Astros playing their best ball of the season, the AL West race could be heating up for a photo finish similar to last season.

What is the MLB Regression Report?

The MLB Regression Report uses a modified Pythagorean Theorem for Baseball formula that includes a team's record in calculating expected wins.

The numbers in "Wins over Expected" column are small at this early stage, but will increase or decrement over the season as appropriate.

It is designed to assist in identifying teams that are either over or underperforming in win-loss records based on run differential and actual wins and losses on the field.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.