MLB Regression Report: Mariners Take Control of AL West, Red Sox Impress

For the second time in three weeks, the Seattle Mariners go 6-1 to extend their lead in the American League West.

Seattle Mariners Take Control of American League West with Sweep of Texas

This time, the won three of four closer-than-expected games over the lowly Chicago White Sox and then swept the defending World Series Champion Texas Rangers in three games to go eight and a half games up, gaining three games over Bruce Bochy's club during the course of the week.

The Mariners take our "Living The High Life" award of the week, but there's also reason to believe they're slightly overperforming expectations at 43-31, as this week's regression report shows Seattle with two more wins than expected.

The Rangers and Astros may still have a little left in them as we approach the halfway point of the season, but Seattle is certainly positioning themselves well in the West.

Chicago Cubs Floundering in National League Central

Many expected the Chicago Cubs and new manager Craig Counsell to contend in a competitive National League Central in 2024 and 72 games into the season are still waiting as the White Sox are not the only team in the Windy City in the cellar.

The 34-38 Cubs are much closer to the top of their division, though, but so far at least, the record reflects how this team has played and for that reason the Cubbies are our "They Are What Their Record Says They Are" award winner.

Boston Red Sox Take Series from Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees

I'd be remiss if I went without mentioning the Red Sox, and while a 4-2 week is typically not enough to make it on this list, Boston won series against the Phillies and the Yankees to move two games over .500 and are now just three games out of a Wild Card spot.

For most of the season the Sox have gone back and forth over and under the .500 mark, but they have a very manageable 15-game stretch before seeing the Yankees again on July 5.

The regression report suggests Boston has left almost a game and a half on the table and are worth keeping an eye on as our "It Ain't Over Till It's Over" team of the week.

What is the MLB Regression Report?

The MLB Regression Report uses a modified Pythagorean Theorem for Baseball formula that includes a team's record in calculating expected wins.

The numbers in "Wins over Expected" column are small at this early stage, but will increase or decrement over the season as appropriate.

It is designed to assist in identifying teams that are either over or underperforming in win-loss records based on run differential and actual wins and losses on the field.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.