Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for August 27 (Back Nola, Gilbert and Flaherty)
There are plenty of matchups to choose from as I attempt to improve on three consecutive 1-1 days.
That won't happen this time, as I've found three matchups I like across Tuesday's slate.
Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Pick
Justin Verlander makes his second start since returning from the IL and faces Aaron Nola and the Philadelphia Phillies in the City of Brotherly Love.
Verlander wasn't terrible in his last start, giving up two runs over five innings to the Red Sox, while striking out six and throwing 76 pitches.
It's about what you can expect from a 41-year-old with almost 3,400 innings on his right arm, as is his five quality starts on 11 total starts in 2024.
Nola has 16 quality starts on the season, but has regressed a bit lately, allowing 32 hits and nine earned runs over his last 23 innings.
The Astros have struggled offensively and the lineup has been depleted, playing for three months without Kyle Tucker, employing untested rookies (Zach Dezenzo and Shay Whitcomb) or aging veterans (Ben Gamel) in key positions both in the lineup and in the field.
The other key factor is that the Astros have used Hector Neris, Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader on back-to-back nights. I'd be shocked if they were available for this one, leaving the bullpen shorthanded and without their highest-leverage arms.
Pick: Phillies Run Line -1.5 +130
Tampa Rays vs Seattle Mariners Prediction and Pick
This is a pitching matchup made for the theory behind the "Counting on Quality" series.
Logan Gilbert has 20 quality starts in 26 starts on the season while Jeffrey Springs has zero in five starts for Tampa.
Of course, Tampa is not your typical MLB team when it comes to starting pitchers, so Springs' numbers mean less in this case.
By the time this one kicks off the Mariners will likely know the outcome in Philadelphia and should be motivated either way.
If the Astros win, the Mariners need a win to stay just 3.5 games behind Houston. If the Astros lose there's an opportunity to cut the deficit to 2.5 games.
The caveat here is the Mariners don't score for Gilbert, averaging just 3.65 runs per start and that's why the team's record is a paltry 12-14 in his starts, despite consistent quality.
But momentum is a funny thing and I sense the atmosphere in Seattle will breathe enough life into the offense for a Mariner win.
Pick: Mariners Money Line -152
Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction and Pick
Jack Flaherty has only one quality starts in four outings since joining the Dodgers, but had 11 in 18 outings with Detroit and is intimately familiar with American League teams, though he hasn't faced the Orioles this season.
Cole Irvin, meanwhile, has four quality starts in 15 outings on the season and will likely be facing a lineup that is getting closer to what was envisioned in the preseason.
The Dodgers have won three of Flaherty's four starts and scored at least 8 runs in the three wins and no less than four runs.
Pick: Dodgers Run Line -1.5 +102
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.