Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for August 23
While Friday's slate of MLB games doesn't offer the most advantageous matchups quality-start-wise, there are a few intriguing matchups, including two involving American League West contenders with scorching hot arms that I'm targeting tonight.
All odds listed via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction and Pick
I've targeted Hunter Brown multiple times this season with mixed results, having most recently lost a first 5 inning bet near the end of July.
That was one of only two starts in his last 16 that Brown has been hit hard as the Astros righthander has seen a remarkable in-season turnaround, lowering his ERA from 6.39 on May 28 to its current 3.82.
Brown has 14 quality starts in 24 starts on the season and while the Astros are only 12-12 in those starts, since Brown's turnaround they are 10-4.
The Orioles are countering with Albert Suarez who has four quality starts in 17 starts on the season.
Houston won 6-0 in Baltimore on Thursday, a margin that allowed the Astros to rest their high-leverage relievers in case they are needed for this one.
Since the All-Star break, the Astros are 19-12, the second-best record in the American League, while the Orioles are a mediocre 16-17.
Pick: Astros Money Line -116
Seattle Mariners at San Francisco Giants Prediction and Pick
The Mariners are in freefall mode and fired Manager Scott Servais on Wednesday as the team fell to 5.5 games behind the Astros, potentially missing the playoffs despite having far and away the most quality starts in the league.
The good news for the Mariners that Luis Castillo is on the mound for Seattle and Castillo has thrown 17 quality starts in 26 starts on the season.
The bad news is the Mariners are only 12-14 in Castillo starts.
While I planned to back Castillo anyway, the managerial change should serve as a wake-up call to the team that their jobs are now on the line.
I'm not a big believer in this type of in-season change leading to long-term success, but can see it leading to a short-term boost.
Castillo was hit around a bit in his last outing but had seven consecutive quality starts before that one.
While the Mariners have averaged 4.04 runs with Castillo on the mound, it's important to note that number is skewed by three double-digit outbursts of 10, 11 and 12 runs respectively, but in 15 of his starts Seattle has scored three runs or less.
That said, the Mariners have an advantage on the mound with Hayden Birdsong going for the Giants and they certainly should have a motivational edge, at least for tonight.
PICK: Mariners ML -153
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.