Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for July 30 (Back Nola and Brown)

Breaking down the best pitchers to target to lead their team to wins on Tuesday, July 30.
Jul 6, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown (58) pitches against the Minnesota Twins during the first inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 6, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown (58) pitches against the Minnesota Twins during the first inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports / Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
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With the trade deadline looming and pennant and playoff races heating up, it's time for the top pitchers to show up for their teams.

Coming off a 1-1 Friday, I've got my eyes on two pitchers who could be seen as heading in opposite directions, but I like both enough to back them in today's matchups.

All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise specified and odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Pick

Aaron Nola has 15 quality starts in 21 outings on the season, but some say Nola is regressing.

It's true his ERA has increased from 2.77 after his June 5 start to the current 3.44, but his FIP is actually a tick lower than it was then.

Most of the upward trend of the ERA took place on June 13, when Nola was blasted by the Red Sox and since then he has fired six quality starts in seven games.

Nola is opposed by Gerrit Cole, someone I never imagined betting against, but this isn't the same Gerrit Cole.

This Gerrit Cole has two quality starts in seven times out on the season and is giving up more hits and walks per nine innings than he has historically.

A loss tonight or tomorrow would mean the Phillies drop their sixth consecutive series.

I don't know about tomorrow, but I'm betting the Phillies get it done tonight behind Nola, just like they've done 15 other times this season when he starts.

PICK: Phillies Money Line -120

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros Prediction and Pick

If there was an award for in-season comeback player of the year, Hunter Brown would be your winner, hands down.

On May 11 Brown was 0-4 with a 7.79 ERA and after getting his first win on May 17 Brown had a 7.71 ERA.

Since then he's reeled off 11 quality starts in 12 outings, lowering his ERA all the way to 4.00, while improving his record to 9-6.

Brown has gone at least six innings in 12 consecutive starts, accumulating a 2.10 ERA over that span and the Astros are 8-1 in his last nine starts.

Brown will be opposed by Bailey Falter who had a nice stretch in late April and May, but regressed in June, before being placed on the injured list in early July.

The Astros let one get away last night, but more than that they used every high-leverage bullpen arm (and then some) as a trade forced Houston to use Tayler Scott as an opener.

Scott threw 35 pitches, Bryan Abreu 30, Ryan Pressly 25 and Josh Hader 30.

That leads me to the Astros -0.5 in the first 5.

Pick: Astros Money Line F5 -0.5 -146

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track all of Marty's bets here!