Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for July 26 (Back Kirby, Gray)
You know you're the "cooler" when you take the Pirates with Paul Skenes on the mound and you lose.
Major League baseball keeps throwing me curves and I keep swinging and missing, but at least I'm still swinging.
Eventually, I'll connect and I'm optimistic it'll start today, despite betting on a game between two of the worst offenses in baseball and another game that screams mediocrity.
But this angle is about pitching and we have plenty of that as we'll be backing George Kirby and Sonny Gray.
All odds in this article are via DraftKings Sportsbook
Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox Prediction and Pick
The Mariners have been horrible since jumping out to a 10-game lead in the AL West on June 18, and now they find themselves looking up at the Houston Astros and keeping an eye on the Texas Rangers.
Speaking of the Rangers they just completed a four-game sweep of the White Sox, holding the Southsiders to 8 runs in four games.
Now the Sox have to face George Kirby, who has 14 quality starts in 21 starts on the season, including his last eight starts.
Kirby is only 2-2 in those starts because Seattle's offense is horrific, arguably second worst only to the White Sox offense.
Kirby will be opposed by rookie Drew Thorpe, who debuted against the Mariners on June 11, giving up just one earned run in 5 innings in Seattle, getting a no-decision.
The White Sox last won a game on July 10, having lost 11 consecutive contests and have scored more than two runs once in their last seven games.
The Mariners have been similarly bad, but someone has to win and I'll take Kirby and the Mariners who get away from the boos in Safeco Field and beat the White Sox who are 8-22 in one-run games.
PICK: Mariners Money Line -161
Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals Prediction and Pick
The Cardinals were one of the teams I picked to falter out of the All-Star break and while that hasn't happened yet (they are 3-3 post-break), I still feel the odds are good that eventually St. Louis fades, perhaps in mid-August during their Dodges, Brewers, Twins, Padres, Yankees stretch, which will be followed by another series with the Brewers in early September.
That said, I like St. Louis in this matchup of Sonny Gray and MacKenzie Gore at Busch Stadium.
Both teams have a below-average offense, with the Nationals sporting a 94 OPS+ and the Cardinals coming in a tick higher at 95.
Gray has eight quality starts in 18 outings and has registered a 3.54 ERA, but his peripherals are solid, including a 2.88 FIP and 2.69 xFIP.
Gore's peripherals are also generally better than his traditional numbers, but not as good as Gray's and the Cardinals are at home where they are 26-22.
St. Louis is 19-14 in one-run games, while Washington is 10-13 in such contests.
Runs will likely be at a premium and I like the Cardinals to edge the Nationals.
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals Money Line -170
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.