Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for June 11 (Back Fried, Stroman and Woo)
These picks haven't performed as well as I would have liked over the first two months of the season, but June has brought some light at the end of the tunnel, with consecutive 2-1 outings and positive returns.
I hope to keep that momentum moving in the right direction with three more picks today, with two of them involving pitchers making big league debuts.
Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles
I've been off the Braves train for a while now, arguing that they are what their record says they are, while a good many folks are still expecting 2023 numbers from Atlanta's offense.
They still have Max Fried, though, and he has seven quality starts in 12 outings on the season, while pitching to a 2.93 ERA.
Fried's last five outings, have resulted in four quality starts, a complete game and, more importantly for our purposes here, four wins for Atlanta.
Overall, the Braves are 9-3 in Fried's starts and are supporting him with 5.52 runs per 27 outs.
The Braves were off Monday and presumably resting in Baltimore, while the Orioles were beating Tampa in Florida, leaving Baltimore to go with journeyman Albert Suarez.
Huge advantage in starting pitching and rest to Atlanta.
Pick: Braves Money Line -131
New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals
Marcus Stroman enters this contest with six quality starts on the season, but more importantly, he pitches for the juggernaut that is the 2024 Yankees.
Stroman is facing Brady Singer, no slouch himself, but the Yankees are on a roll, winning 14 of their last 18, including a 3-1 win in Kansas City Monday evening.
Since an eight-game winning streak in mid to late May the Royals have flattened out, going 5-9 and losing some steam.
Eventually, it'll come down to a battle of the bullpens and I trust the Yankees bullpen far more than that of the Royals.
PICK: Yankees Money Line -142
Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners
This one doesn't really need a ton of explaining if you've watched any amount of baseball this season.
Bryan Woo has four quality starts in six tries for the Mariners and is 3-0 with a 1.07 ERA.
There are injury concerns with Woo, who started the season on the Injured List and reported tightness in his pitching forearm in mid May, but has not missed a start since, reeling off four consecutive quality starts since May 21, including three in which he didn't give up a run.
The Mariners offense is always a question mark, but they have averaged over 6 runs per 27 outs in Woo starts and are 6-0 in those starts.
The White Sox are going with their No. 3 prospect, Drew Thorpe, who will be making his Major League debut.
Thorpe was 7-1 with a 1.35 ERA and 56 strikeouts in 60 innings in Double-A, before his promotion.
I wouldn't take the Mariners Run Line under most circumstances, and there's a good chance the Mariners only bat eight times in this one, reducing the chances of covering the 1.5.
That said, the White Sox bullpen has been so bad, 29th in bullpen ERA, that I believe it's worth the price here, as I envision the rookie not being extended, forcing Chicago to use a bad bullpen to cover four or more innings.
Mariners Run Line -1.5 -113
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.