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MLB Regression Report: Reds Big Week Vaults Cincinnati into Contention in NL Central

Reds move into second place, Braves fall farther behind and Astros fail late again.

By Marty Coleman

Jun 8, 2024; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Reds outfielder TJ Friedl (29) high fives shortstop Elly De La Cruz (44) after the victory over the Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 8, 2024; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Reds outfielder TJ Friedl (29) high fives shortstop Elly De La Cruz (44) after the victory over the Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports / Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports
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For most of the season, I've thought that the Milwaukee Brewers were the class of the National League Central Division and that opinion still holds today.

Cincinnati Reds On Fire, Leap Into Second in the NL Central

But I did take notice of the move the Cincinnati Reds made last week, going 6-1 with a three-game sweep in Colorado and taking the first three against the Cubs before falling to Shota Imanaga on Sunday.

The Reds have been maddingly inconsistent all season and there's likely more of that to come, but they are this week's "Living The High Life" award winner of the week.

Despite being a couple of games under .500 the Reds have a positive run differential, in part due to their 4-11 record in one-run games, suggesting there is still some upside for Cincinnati.

Atlanta Braves Going Nowhere Fast

The once-powerful Atlanta Braves continue to struggle and have fallen nine full games behind the Philadelphia Phillies and after losing three of four to the Nationals have lost 10 of their last 16 games and find themselves in Baltimore for three games.

Playing .556 ball will get you to 90 wins and perhaps a Wild Card berth, but this has the feel of a team that's holding on for dear life with almost 100 games left to play.

The fact is, this is what the Braves are right now and they earn the "They Are What Their Record Says They Are" award for this week.

Houston Astros Continue to Flounder Late

Last week, we had the Astros as the "It Ain't Over Till It's Over" award winner and Houston repeated this week, going 4-2, but somehow leaving their fans feeling empty after blowing 3-1 and 7-4 leads to the Angels on Sunday.

It's a fascinating study of roster management in Houston, as they fixed a problem that didn't exist (closer) and refused to fix a problem that persists (first base) and the result is a team that has forgotten how to win close games (5-13 in one-run games) despite ridding themselves of a perceived problem running the show (Dusty Baker).

The Houston bullpen has 12 saves and 11 blown saves on the season, after blowing just 18 save opportunities all of last season.

Yet, the Astros gained a game on the Mariners and find themselves 6.5 back and still in contention in the A.L. West, with the MLB Regression Report ranking Joe Espada's team as the "unluckiest" in MLB.

Perhaps, but at some point you need to make your own luck and Houston hasn't done that in 2024.

What is the MLB Regression Report?

The MLB Regression Report uses a modified Pythagorean Theorem for Baseball formula that includes a team's record in calculating expected wins.

The numbers in "Wins over Expected" column are small at this early stage, but will increase or decrement over the season as appropriate.

It is designed to assist in identifying teams that are either over or underperforming in win-loss records based on run differential and actual wins and losses on the field.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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