Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for September 13 (Back Nola and Kikuchi)
Mid-September is a fun time in baseball as the pennant races either heat up or separation happens and teams begin to look forward to next season.
We've got a little of both in the Friday night slate, which causes some mismatches and great unknowns as rookies are called up lending uncertainty to the matchups we've relied on all season.
That said, I've found two games that I feel good about and that can keep this train rolling.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Pick
In case you've noticed, I take the Phillies a lot in this space and there's an obvious reason for that. Their starting rotation is second in the league (behind Seattle) in quality starts.
On the mound tonight for Philadelphia is Aaron Nola who has 18 quality starts on the season in 29 total starts.
Nola will be opposed by Jose Quintana who has just 10 quality starts in 28 outings on the season for the resurgent Mets.
The Phillies have a comfortable lead in the National League East while the Mets are battling the Atlanta Braves for the final Wild Card spot.
Philadelphia never wants for motivation though, especially at home where the Phillies are 50-25.
With Nola on the hill the Phillies are 19-10 and average 4.79 runs per game, while the Mets are 14-14 with Quintana starting.
The juice makes the money line prohibitive, so I've pivoted to the run line in this one.
PICK: Phillies Run Line -1.5 +129
Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction and Pick
This pick is going to break all kinds of rules and norms, but desperate times call for desperate measures.
Astros fans hated the trade for Yusei Kikuchi, or more accurately the return the Blue Jays got for the struggling lefty, but there's an argument to be made that the team wouldn't be in first place without him.
All Kikuchi has done is go 4-0 with a 3.07 ERA in seven starts and the Astros have won all seven games.
In his first five starts with the Astros Kikuchi would have gotten credit for a quality start if he had gotten one more out four times and two more outs once.
Then, in start six with Houston, he did get a quality start, notching his only official quality start with the Astros.
The Angels meanwhile, have gone to a youth movement, both on the mound and in the field and have recently rolled out lineups with unfamiliar names as they play out the string looking to find something for 2025.
Twenty-two-year-old Sam Aldegheri is one of those names and he will oppose Kikuchi in a matchup of left-handers.
This will be Aldegheri's third start, the second of which was a quality start against the Texas Rangers.
I'm not going to pretend there's not risk in this pick as the Astros tend to play down to their competition and struggle when they haven't seen a pitcher before.
That said, the Angels lineup shouldn't be much of a problem for Kikuchi and the Astros bullpen.
PICK: Astros Run Line -1.5 -125
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.