Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for September 10 (Back Suarez, Lopez and Gallen)
It was a long time coming, but last Friday I had probably my best day of the season, getting wins in two plus number matchups that gave me the little mental boost needed to see this to the end.
Plus, September baseball is fun as the playoffs are right around the corner and the races heat up.
I've got three matchups that I like today.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Pick
The Phillies took the opener of this series by a 2-1 margin on Monday in walk-off fashion after a dramatic ninth inning, but I expect more from the Phillies bats today against Taj Bradley.
Ranger Suarez gets the nod for the Phillies and he's cooled since his terrific start to the season, though he did throw five shutout in his last outing.
Suarez is more than capable with 11 quality starts and a 2.90 ERA for the season, but this is a bet on the Philadelphia offense as much as Suarez and the bullpen.
The Phillies are deadly at home and are 16-7 with Suarez on the mound and average 5.46 runs when he starts.
PICK: Phillies Run Line -1.5 +125
Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins Prediction and Pick
Griffin Canning vs. Pablo Lopez certainly favors the Twins, but have you seen the lineup the Angels are trotting out these days?
Yes, they beat Minnesota last night, but to me that's all the more reason to back Minnesota in this one.
Lopez's 16 quality starts dominate the six Canning owns, the Twins are at home and the results are nearly mirror opposites with these two on the mound: The Twins are 17-11 with Lopez starting, while the Angels are 11-16 with Canning starting.
PICK: Twins Run Line -1.5 -112
Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick
This is a rare occasion where I back the pitcher with less quality starts, in this case Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks who has 11 quality starts on the season as compared to the 14 by Nathan Eovaldi.
While starting pitching is the biggest part of the equation for me, the Diamondbacks have quietly amassed an offensive juggernaut, leading the league in runs, on-base percentage and wOBA, while ranking fourth in wRC+.
Eovaldi has been solid, giving the Rangers seven innings in three of his last four starts, but Arizona got him for five hits and two runs in just three innings back in May as he came off the IL.
Texas has been playing well, albeit mostly against lesser competition, but now faces a team that is battling for a Wild Card and needs every win they can muster.
While Eovaldi and Gallen may cancel each other out, I trust the Diamondback bats and bullpen more than the Rangers.
PICK: Arizona Money Line -143
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.