Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for September 6 (Back Fried and Valdez)
After taking a bad beat earlier in the week, I'm focused on two high-quality matchups on Friday's slate, with the home teams battling for playoff positions.
Betting on baseball is not for the faint-hearted as there are no kneel-downs and the clock never runs out, as I found out earlier this week.
Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves Prediction and Pick
The 67-74 Toronto Blue Jays are playing out the string, while the Atlanta Braves are battling for their playoff lives and coming off a humiliating loss at home to the Colorado Rockies.
The Blue Jays are going with Kevin Gausman who I've backed multiple times with mixed success this season.
Gausman has 13 quality starts on the season and has been markedly better on the road than at home in 2024.
Gausman was also good in August, but in three of the starts didn't make it more than 5.2 innings with the Jays losing two of those three.
Max Fried has 12 quality starts on the season and Atlanta is 14-10 in Fried starts on the season and while he hasn't been spectacular the Blue Jays offense has been mediocre, at best.
This profiles as a pretty even matchup of starting pitchers, but the Blue Jays bullpen has been horrific all season and the Braves are at home.
One team is motivated to fight for a playoff spot, while the other is a long way from home, waiting for the season to end.
PICK: Braves Run Line - 1.5 +124
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros Prediction and Pick
Brandon Pfaadt gets the nod for Arizona and he has managed 12 quality starts in 27 total starts on the season.
Pfaadt is 9-7 with a 4.32 ERA on the season, but has been better at home than on the road.
But Pfaady hasn't been very good recently, giving up at least three runs in each of his last four outings.
The Astros were just swept by Cincinnati and are in need of a win to keep the Mariners at a distance in the American League West race.
They have just the arm to do it on the mound tonight, as Framber Valdez has been spectacular recently, improving from 6-5 with a 3.80 ERA on June 29, to 13-6 with a 3.11 ERA today.
Valdez is also coming off seven no-hit innings against the Royals back on August 30th.
Valdez has 14 quality starts on the season, but those numbers are a bit misleading in that he also has three additional starts that would qualify with one additional out.
The Diamondbacks are 30-14 since the All-Star break and are on an extended run, but I like the Astros in this spot with Framber on the mound and the back end of the bullpen at full strength once again.
PICK: Astros Run Line -1.5 +127
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.