Best MLB Strikeout Props Today, March 29: Target Freddy Peralta Against the Mets
Opening day is in the books, and we were able to hit two of our three bets. Tarik Skubal missed his line by just one strikeout.
Below I am going to give three of my favorite strikeout prop picks for the day. I will be taking each of these as individual bets.
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Best Strikeout Props Today for March 29
- Freddy Peralta OVER 6.5 strikeouts
- Aaron Civale OVER 3.5 strikeouts
- A.J. Puk OVER 5.5 strikeouts
Freddy Peralta OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+110) at New York Mets
This bet is solely because of how good Peralta is. Firstly, Peralta has been a strikeout pitcher his whole career. He has a career 11.61 K/9, and he is coming off a season in which he had a K/9 of 11.41.
If you want the Numbers, Peralta struck out 210 batters in 165.2 innings pitched. It is opening day for him, but seven strikeouts is more than attainable.
Peralta's first start of the season came against the Mets last season, as well. He went six innings and struck out seven in the Brewers blowout win that day.
On the season last year, Peralta's whiff percentage was in the 91st percentile of all qualified pitchers. He also had a career-high chase rate in the 2023 season. He is the ace on the team, and I am expecting seven strikeouts from him.
Aaron Civale OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-168) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
This is not the prettiest bet, but it is one I think can hit with ease. Civale needs just four strikeouts to cash this prop, and he is more than capable. When he was traded to the Rays last season, his strikeouts went up.
With the Cleveland Guardians last year, Civale had a 6.76 K/9. With the Rays, that number jumped to 11.51. Tampa Bay unlocked something with his pitching, and it seemed to really work. Four strikeouts for him in this game is one of my favorite plays of the day.
A.J. Puk OVER 5.5 strikeouts (+114) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Puk is making the move to the rotation after being used as a reliever his whole career. In fact, this is his first career start. However, Puk is a strikeout pitcher as he has a career K/9 of 11.15. He was able to have a career-best 12.39 K/9 in 2023. As long as he goes five or six innings, Puk should reach six strikeouts.
The main reason I love this play is the Marlins struck out the Pirates 17 times on opening day. Despite losing, the Marlins were able to dominate the Pirates in the box. Puk has a disgusting pitch arsenal, and the Pirates are going to struggle with it. In 2023, Puk's sweeper had a 38.9 whiff percentage, and his total whiff percentage was in the 89th percentile.
Pittsburgh is going to struggle with Puk's pitch mix, and I am full expecting this over to hit.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.