Best MLB Upset Picks for April 12 (Back Corey Seager and the Rangers)
The nature of baseball makes it tough when picking favorites sometimes, as my early season record shows.
Luckily for me, there's also value on the board today, with two road underdogs that I like at plus money that will help balance out the slate.
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Texas Rangers at Houston Astros
The Rangers are coming off a series loss at home against the Oakland A's and before that, a split in a four-game set with the very same Astros.
The Astros have been consistent early, consistently bad that is, going 2-5 on a seven-game homestand to open the season and then going 2-5 on a seven-game road trip that included being swept in Kansas City while blowing a three-run lead in game one and being outscored 24-5 in the final two games.
J.P. France is on the mound for the beleaguered Astros pitching staff and the Rangers have hit France to the tune of a .328 average and .544 slug in 71 plate appearances.
Offensively, the Astros have struggled with men in scoring position, slashing .229/.292/.313 on the young season and leaving 36 runners on base over three games in Kansas City.
The Rangers haven't been great, but Dunning held Houston to 3 runs in 6.2 innings on April 7th, the Astros don't play well at home (39-42 in 2023, 2-5 so far in 2024) and have a pitching staff in shambles, including a beyond taxed bullpen.
PICK: Rangers Money Line +114
Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies
With risks, comes reward, or at least that's how I'm looking at this matchup in Philadelphia this evening.
The Pirates are off to a 9-4 start, while the Phillies have underperformed and find themselves 7-6 on the young season.
It was just last season that the Pirates started 20-8 before collapsing, so a similar scenario is possible this season as the schedule toughens, as is Pittsburgh starter Bailey Falter, well, faltering.
After struggling in his first outing of the season, Falter shut down the powerful Orioles over six innings, allowing only a single hit and no runs on April 6.
It'll be tough to duplicate that in Philly, but the Pirates have scored runs when Falter is on the hill, and with only 6 plate appearances against the southpaw the Phillies' unfamiliarity may favor Falter.
This is simply a value pick. I'm getting a 9-4 team at a great number against a mediocre pitcher (Cristopher Sanchez).
PICK: Pirates Money Line + 136
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.