Best MLB Upset Picks for May 1 (Back Royals, Reds and Nationals)
Close doesn't mean much when you're taking underdogs, at least not if you take the run line, but that's where the value is in the long run.
That's the price paid: Your winning percentage is going to suffer, but your bottom line will be fatter if you can find a way to win one of two bets in most instances.
Plus, it's baseball, which is different than other sports when it comes to betting on the dogs. Bad hops, field conditions, hang nails and a myriad of other factors mean underdogs have a shot in almost every single game.
Plus, that's what makes it fun.
Fun or not, the goal is the same: Come out on the positive side of the ledger.
Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction and Pick
I've backed Chris Bassitt multiple times this season, but I'm beginning to believe it's just not his or the Blue Jays year.
Bassitt had a couple of quality starts for his two wins back in mid-April, but hasn't shown much other than that and the Jays are 2-4 in his starts.
On the flip side, Seth Lugo is 4-2 with a 1.66 ERA, completing at least six innings in five of his six starts, including shutting out the Tigers on three hits over seven innings last time out.
The names in Toronto's lineup once stoked fear, but the truth is they've been middling this season with an OPS+ of 96.
PICK: Royals Money Line +112
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Prediction and Pick
Speaking of not looking right in 2024, Joe Musgrove was someone we bet on early and often this season, only to be disappointed.
Musgrove has three quality starts, but has given up at least four runs in four of his seven starts, including 7 on 8 hits, including four home runs last time out.
For what seems like the tenth consecutive season the Padres are underperforming at 15-18, while the Reds are up and comers battling the Cubs and Brewers in the National League Central,
Graham Ashcraft has been hit or miss as his 4.40 ERA implies, but we backed him in our last upset picks when he hurled 6.1 one-run innings on the road against the World Champion Texas Rangers.
PICK: Reds Money Line +118
Washington Nationals vs Texas Rangers Prediction and Pick
Count me in the group that wonders if the World Champion Rangers can continue to stay afloat until they get healthy.
It simply doesn't look like the feared offense from last season and their team OPS+ is sitting at 106 after finishing last season at 113.
Trevor Williams gets the nod for the Nats and while he's having a good season to date, there's not much length to his game, so tread carefully, but Washington is 4-1 in Williams' starts.
On the other side, Andrew Heaney is someone I like to bet against for obvious reasons. Heaney has a 6.26 ERA, 5.64 FIP, only accumulated 23 innings across five starts and given up five home runs.
Not only that, but Texas is 0-5 in Heaney's starts, two of them to the 10-19 Astros.
PICK: Nationals Money Line +138
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.