Best MLB Upset Picks for May 28 (Back the Pirates and Nationals)
Fresh off a split, but net positive in units in last week's upset picks, I'm back for more this week with a couple of games full of value, at least by my way of thinking.
With a handful of high level pitching matchups, is it worthwhile to side with the underdogs? I'm eyeing the likes of the Pirates and Nationals on Tuesday, who have a ton of plus money value.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers Prediction and Pick
Left in the dust of the Paul Skenes mania is another Pirate rookie, Jared Jones, who has given the Pirates seven quality starts in 10 outings on the season.
Jones has hit double-digit strikeouts twice, never given up more than three earned runs in a start and averages 5.9 innings per go.
Efficiency is key for the 22-year old Jones, as he has yet to reach 100 pitches in a game, but he has surpassed 90 in three of his last four starts.
This won't be easy as the Pirates face Cy Young Award candidate Tarik Skubal who's been fantastic overall this season, but hit a bump in the road last time out against Kansas City, allowing 4 runs in five innings.
The Tigers are 7-3 with Skubal on the mound and average 5.82 runs when he pitches, so Jones will likely have to be very good.
He's certainly capable of doing so and his consistency tells me there's value in this number.
PICK: Pirates Money Line +130
Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Prediction and Pick
What if I told you Jake Irvin and Max Fried have the same number of quality starts on the season?
Irvin's been a bit up and down, but has pitched to a 3.79 ERA and 3.59 FIP on the season.
No one defines up and down more than Fried, who's had two no-hit outings of six and seven innings respectively, but also gave up seven earned runs in 4.1 innings against Arizona and more recently lasted only 4.1 innings against San Diego (9 hits, 3 runs allowed).
While my first play above was based on perceived value, this one is based more on the fact that the Braves are reeling from the loss of Ronald Acuna, Jr. and their once-promising season is quickly fading with the Phillies racing out to a big lead in the National League East.
Beginning with the Dodger series when they were swept aside like a second-class baseball team, the Braves are only 10-12, with most of those losses coming with Acuna, Jr. in the lineup. Now they face life without their biggest star.
It appears the Braves are still being valued as if this was still 2023, when in fact this hasn't been the same offense.
Atlanta could certainly erupt and make me look foolish, but at +210, it's worth the risk.
PICK: Nationals Money Line +210
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.