Best MLB Upset Picks for June 7 (Back Pirates and Angels Friday)
While I've struggled on my Quality Start picks this season, I've had a little better luck picking upsets.
That means this exercise has been more fun, because like an underdog playing a big favorite, there's nothing to lose.
That and the fact that going 1-1 means you come out ahead has made this exercise more enjoyable, at least to this point in the season.
I've got two picks in Friday's games that I like, so without further ado, let's get to them.
Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Mitch Keller, who is being overshadowed by rookie sensations Paul Skenes and Jared Jones, is quietly putting together a solid year for the Pirates.
He's facing Joe Ryan in this matchup and while Ryan has seven quality starts on the season, Keller is right behind with six.
Ryan was shellacked by the Astros last time out, giving up eight hits and five runs, including four home runs in five innings.
Meanwhile, Keller is on a streak of five consecutive quality starts which all resulted in wins for him and the team, leaving Pittsburgh 8-4 in Keller starts.
The price, at +110, shows just how much of a toss-up the books believe this game is and I believe it's a value with the Pirates being at home and coming off a series victory over the Dodgers.
PICK: Pirates Money Line +110
Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels
On one hand, Framber Valdez has pitched well for the Astros winning 44 games and pitching to a 3.21 ERA over the last three-plus seasons.
Lately, though Valdez seems to blow up and lose concentration over sometimes trivial matters like a random missed strike call in the third inning.
The pitch clock may not effect anyone more than Valdez as he has less time to work through his emotions between pitches.
Valdez is 4-3 with a 3.95 ERA in 2024 and it's been a roller coaster again. Valdez lasted only 4.2 innings in the opener against the Yankees, then held Toronto scoreless for 7.2 innings.
A couple starts later he was rocked by a weak Mariners offense, before pitching well against the Tigers and Athletics, then getting knocked around by these very Angels for 8 runs and 10 hits in five innings.
All this to say Valdez is nothing if not maddingly inconsistent.
He could throw seven shutout innings or he could give up seven runs in an inning and I wouldn't be all that surprised by either.
Griffin Canning hasn't been very good and the Angels aren't any better, but the 25-38 Astros,
who are 11-17 on the road, at -165 and Angels +140 seems out of whack to me.
It was just a little over two weeks ago when the Angels took two of three against Houston in Houston, one of which was the Valdez start mentioned above.
Rather than a deep analysis, this is a value play for me as the Astros have not earned the respect being given to them 63 games into the season.
PICK: Angels +140
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.