Best MLB Upset Picks for May 9 (Back Mariners and Astros to Win on Thursday)

Breaking down the best upset picks for the seven games in the MLB slate on Thursday, May 9.
May 3, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Ronel Blanco (56) delivers a pitch
May 3, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Ronel Blanco (56) delivers a pitch / Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

With only seven games on today's slate, one would think that the opportunity for upsets would be limited.

While that's true with the volume of games, Thursday's also bring us get-away-days and lineups that are sometimes different than other days and that also brings value in the betting market on occasion.

Today, I'm targeting two American League West teams on the road, one that's pitching their brains out and one that can't do anything right.

Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins

The Twins are on a heater, just off a 12-game winning streak and have won 14 of their last 16 games.

Look a little deeper and the bulk of that winning streak came against the White Sox (seven games) and Angels (three games), two teams that don't scare anyone.

Meanwhile, all the Mariners do is get quality start after quality start and with Logan Gilbert on the mound today, I'm expecting more of that.

Gilbert is 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.79 WHIP and has provided six quality starts in seven outings on the season.

Gilbert is opposed by Pablo Lopez, who's been up and down on the season, being hit by the Angels and White Sox before mastering the Red Sox last time out.

In short, you're not sure what you'll get from Lopez, whereas you pretty much know what Gilbert is going to give the Mariners.

It may not be easy, but there won't be too many times you'll get peak Logan Gilbert at plus money and when you do, you probably should take it.

PICK: Mariners Money Line +110

Houston Astros vs New York Yankees

I've spent the better part of the last two nights betting on the Yankees to mash the hapless Houston Astros, but immediately jumped on this number during last night's thrashing.

Houston has been terrible, and even Justin Verlander got blasted Tuesday in the Bronx.

The one thing that has gone right for the Astros is Ronel Blanco, who has thrown a no-hitter and given the Astros five quality starts in six outings and missed the other by a single start.

Blanco has been consistent, even as he regressed from the pitcher that allowed one hit in his first 15 innings of the season.

Blanco is opposed by Marcus Stroman, so this won't be a walk in the park for Joe Espada's team, but avoiding another sweep could play in the Astros favor.

It'd be an overstatement to say the Astros are playing for their playoff lives because those hopes are dead, but if they plan on showing any pride and professionalism it'll be with Blanco on the mound, as he's been the starter in five of their 12 wins.

PICK: Astros +110

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track all of Marty's bets here!