Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for May 7 (Back Burnes, Imanaga, Yamamoto)
After a 2-0 day in quality picks last Friday, I've got a good handle on the process and how to go about picking the games.
That's a good thing because Tuesday offers up several games with contradictory information and choices that may seem counterintuitive and require me to leave some seemingly obvious picks off the card. After all, the advantage is not always what it seems to look at names alone.
Season Record: 17-20 Net Units: -5.65
The season is a little more than 20% complete, so we've got plenty of time to get back to the positive side of the ledger and with teams getting quality starts winning at nearly a 70% clip (80% if an opponent doesn't get a quality start), I remain confident.
Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies
Yes, I just said I was confident, but I'll tell you right off the bat it scares me to bet Toronto against the Phillies in Philadelphia, especially the way the Phillies have been rolling.
But this is about the process and this process sees quality start after quality start from Jose Berrios, totaling 6 in his 7 starts this season, with the Blue Jays going 6-1 in those games.
On the flip side, Cristopher Sanchez is going for Philadelphia and while he's thrown two quality starts in six outings, the Phillies are 1-5 when Sanchez starts.
It doesn't hurt that I'm getting Berrios at plus money.
PICK: Blue Jays Money Line +112
Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals
I've been on Corbin Burnes and the Orioles several times this season with mixed results, but I still believe, especially against a middling Nationals squad.
Burnes owns four quality starts in seven times out to the mound this season, but as good as the Orioles are they've only won two of those.
I'm betting that changes in this one with Washington's bats beginning the week right at a league average 100 OPS+
Trevor Williams starts for the Nationals and he's been good, but his peripherals hint at regression coming and an Oriole lineup with a 121 OPS+ is a good candidate to make that a reality.
PICK: Orioles Run Line -1.5 -128
San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs
In his six MLB starts Shota Imanaga has four quality starts and he didn't give up a run in the other two that totaled 9.1 innings of work.
His ERA won't stay under 1.00 forever, so there's some regression ahead, but the Cubs are 6-0 in his starts and they are facing Randy Vasquez and the Padres at Wrigley Field where the Cubs are 12-4.
This will be a challenge for Imanaga, as the Padres come in with a team OPS+ of 116, but I expect the Cubs to put up plenty of runs in his support.
PICK: Cubs Money Line -134
Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are on fire and Miami is not, might be the understatement of the year.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto has three quality starts, but he has two more starts where he didn't allow a run, with the Dodgers limiting his pitch count as a precaution early in the season.
He's fully stretched out now, throwing at least 91 pitches in each of his last four outings, which happen to be all three of his quality starts, with the Dodgers going 2-1 in those games.
The opponent matters though, and the Marlins are not good.
Yamamoto will be opposed by Edwin Cabrera who owns one quality start and a 6.05 ERA.
PICK: Dodgers Run Line -1.5 -118
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.