Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for May 3 (Back Nola, Gray)
When searching for options for the Counting on Quality picks, sometimes there's so many options to choose from it's difficult to narrow it down.
Today was not one of those times as there are only two games that I feel comfortable provide what I'm looking for.
I'm coming off a 1-2 day on Tuesday, so it's time to get back on the winning side.
Season Record: 15-20 Net Units: -7.21
San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Pick
The Phillies have been a wagon lately, sweeping the Padres and taking two of three from the Angels.
Philadelphia is calling on Aaron Nola, who has thrown four consecutive quality starts, with a fifth coming an out short despite giving up 0 runs and the Phillies are 5-0 in those five starts.
Jordan Hicks is opposing Nola and he's had a fine season so far, but he hasn't seen an offense like the Phillies in Philadelphia.
The Phillies rested on Thursday while the Giants and their bullpen were battling the Red Sox in Boston.
At first glance, this looks like one I would avoid because of the matchup, but the line tells you all you need to know about which team is better, implying a 59.35% chance of a Phillies win.
PICK: Phillies Money Line -146
Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction and Pick
I'm not sure how much analysis is needed for a bet against the White Sox at this point of the season and the 6-25 Southsiders will have to face Sonny Gray and his 1.16 ERA in St. Louis.
Gray held the Phillies without a run over five innings in his season debut on April 9 and since then has three straight quality starts, giving up just three earned runs over 18.1 innings.
The White Sox will counter with Brad Keller who's making his first start of the season.
With the Money Line at a staggering -290 we'll be looking at the Run Line -1.5 on this one.
That is a cause for concern as the Cardinals have only scored 109 runs in 31 games and the White Sox have played 11 one-run games in 31 outings.
That said, the White Sox are 1-13 on the road, have only plated 89 runs, have a team OPS+ of 73 and a team batting average of .212, so I'm willing to take a chance they win by more than a single run.
This may be the only time this season I take the Cardinals on the Run Line, but I see it as an opportunity to bet against the lowly White Sox at a decent number.
PICK: Cardinals Run Line -1.5 -115
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.