Best NBA First Basket Scorer Picks for Tuesday, May 7 (Target Donovan Mitchell, Luka Doncic)
By Peter Dewey
A pair of Game 1s take place in the NBA playoffs on Tuesday night, and it's a prime time to take a pair of first basket scorers to kick off the night betting on the NBA.
The Boston Celtics, who take on the No. 4-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers, have been an elite first basket team this season since they win the jump ball so often, but with Kristaps Porzingis out, that could change in this series.
Meanwhile, two of the top scorers in the NBA -- Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander -- duke it out in the Western Conference semifinals tonight. Is either player worth a shot in the first basket market?
Here's who I'm taking to score first in these playoff matchups:
NBA First Basket Scorer Picks and Predictions
- Donovan Mitchell First Basket Scorer (+500)
- Luka Doncic First Basket Scorer (+550)
Donovan Mitchell First Basket Scorer (+500)
While Boston has been elite at winning the jump ball this season, so have the Cavs, taking it in 73.0 percent of their games this season.
Even if Jarrett Allen (questionable) doesn’t play, I still give the edge to Evan Mobley over Al Horford in a potential jump-ball matchup with Porzingis out.
That sets up Donovan Mitchell – who has seen a ton of touches in the playoffs – to be the first basket scorer on Tuesday.
Mitchell had 50 points in Game 6 and 39 points in Game 7 against the Orlando Magic, attempting 23 or more shots in each of the final three games in the series.
On the season, he’s been a great player to target to score first, registering 15 first baskets in 62 games, meaning he’s scoring first 24.2 percent of the time. While Mitchell only attempts the first shot 16.1 percent of the time, that number is on the rise from the regular season.
With Cleveland in a prime spot to earn the first possession, Mitchell is a must bet on Tuesday.
Luka Doncic First Basket Scorer (+550)
We’re going with high-usage, high-volume scorers tonight – especially since that strategy worked with Jalen Brunson scoring first on Monday.
Luka Doncic has seen his first basket numbers soar, going all the way to a team-high 12 on the season while taking the first shot 15.8 percent of the time.
Doncic should have the ball in his hands early and often, and I like him more than Gilgeous-Alexander (first shot just 3.8 percent of the time) as a first basket scorer tonight.
The Dallas Mavericks do win the jump ball less than OKC this season, but Dallas has also shown the ability to get stops early in the playoffs. I’ll trust one of the game’s best scorers to get on the board early at some pretty favorable odds.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.