Best NBA First Basket Scorer Picks for Monday, March 4 (Target These Big Men)
By Peter Dewey
It's a new week, and it means there's a whole new slate of first-basket scorer bets to wager on in the NBA!
On Sunday, we nailed Jaylen Brown to be the first basket scorer in the Boston Celtics-Golden State Warriors game at over +400 odds.
Betting on the first basket in a game can be volatile, as there are a lot of factors that can go into it -- including the winner of the jump ball, who takes the first shot most often, and whether or not we see a basket on the first possession.
Some of that variability makes this a tough market to handicap, but there is the upside of cashing in on seriously favorable odds if we are right.
With just six games in the NBA on Monday, our options for first-basket scorers are a little limited. Still, here are my favorites to bet for tonight's action:
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NBA First Basket Scorer Picks and Predictions
- Chet Holmgren First Basket Scorer (+650)
- Nic Claxton First Basket Scorer (+450)
- John Collins First Basket Scorer (+550)
Chet Holmgren First Basket Scorer (+650)
Oklahoma City Thunder big man Chet Holmgren is in a good spot to score the first bucket against the Los Angeles Lakers tonight, starting with how much he wins the jump ball.
Holmgren has won the tip in 61.7 percent of games this season, which is more than Anthony Davis has for Los Angeles.
Holmgren leads the Thunder in first baskets this season with 10, and he has the second-most of any player on tonight’s slate.
Even though Chet is only attempting the first shot in 11.9 percent of his games, he’s still worth a shot at this price with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander set as the favorite even though he only takes the first shot in 3.4 percent of games.
Nic Claxton First Basket Scorer (+450)
The player with the most first baskets this season that plays tonight?
Brooklyn Nets center Nic Claxton.
Not what you’d expect? Me either.
Claxton has 13 first baskets on the season, taking the first shot for the Nets 18 percent of the time. He’s also won over 56 percent of his jump balls this season.
Usually, I’d stay away from a team playing the Memphis Grizzlies since Jaren Jackson Jr. wins nearly 70 percent of his jump balls this season, but he’s listed as doubtful tonight. That gives Claxton some added value in this market, as he’ll also have a favorable matchup down low on offense.
John Collins First Basket Scorer (+550)
The Utah Jazz have ruled out Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler against the Washington Wizards, so why not take a shot on John Collins to score the first basket?
Collins has been solid for Utah all season, especially since the team moved Kelly Olynyk at the deadline, which opened up more minutes for Collins.
He’s scored the first bucket in just five games this season, but he’s facing a weak Washington defense that also wins less than 35 percent of its jump balls. Markkanen has by far the most first baskets on the Jazz this season, so this market is wide open for the taking tonight.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.