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Best NBA Player Prop Today: How to Bet on Luka Doncic in Game 5

Luka Doncic has been playing below his standards so far in the series, but this stat shows why that is due to change tonight.

By Gage Bridgford

Luka Doncic drives to the basket
Luka Doncic drives to the basket / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
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We’ve now lost two NBA plays in a row after finishing last week on a small winning streak. The volume was there for Josh Hart last night, but it just wasn’t his night from beyond the arc. Overall, we’re still up 6.41 units on NBA plays this year.

For today, we’re keeping things real simple and focusing on one of the best players the league has to offer. We’re targeting Luka Doncic from the Dallas Mavericks tonight. It seems like tonight is going to be his night.

Best Bets Record to Date

  • 2024 record: 35-31-0 (+9.05 units)

Find Gage Bridgford's Best Bets betting record here.

NBA Best Bet Today

Luka Doncic O33.5 Points (+100)

I said we were keeping things simple today, and I meant exactly that. The LA Clippers have done a good job of containing Luka so far in this series, but I think that is going to change a bit tonight. The volume has been there for Doncic, but he just hasn’t been shooting up to his usual standards. He admitted as much following the team’s Game 4 loss where his teammate Kyrie Irving put up 40 points and helped to drag the Mavs back into the game after they trailed by as many as 31 points. 

Doncic had 44 against the Clippers in their first meeting this year. He had to deal with Kawhi Leonard in all three games against them, and he finished with 30 or fewer in the other two matchups. This play is largely a narrative play. Doncic is a threat to go for 40 or more every time he touches the floor. When he feels he has motivation to do it, his chances get even higher, and I think tonight is going to be one of those nights from him.

Over their last 30 games, the Clippers were one of the worst teams in the NBA at slowing down opposing point guards. They gave up the fifth-most points and allowed the third-most 3-pointers. Luka is not one of those players that you can let get hot against you because he will bury you fast. Luka has been due for one of those big explosive games, and I think tonight is the night he makes his full entrance to this series.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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