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Best NBA Player Prop Today: How to Bet on Nikola Jokic in Game 5

Nikola Jokic is often praised for his passing ability, but this stat shows why his scoring should be your focus tonight.

By Gage Bridgford

Nikola Jokic controls the ball
Nikola Jokic controls the ball / Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
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We’re back after the weekend off, and we’re looking to make it three straight NBA player prop wins after Anthony Edwards brought it home on Friday night by stuffing the stat sheet a little bit. Now, we have another three-game slate ahead of us tonight.

For today’s play, we’re going to be targeting arguably the best player on the planet in Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets. Denver has the chance to close out the series tonight at home over the Los Angeles Lakers, and I think Jokic is going to come out with an edge to establish himself early.

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Best Player Props Record to Date

  • 2024 record: 33-27-0 (+9.55 units)

Find Gage Bridgford's Best Bets betting record here.

NBA Best Player Prop Today

  • Nikola Jokic O8.5 First-Quarter Points (+105) - 1 Unit

This will be the first time we’ve dabbled into the world of first-quarter points, but it’s just too good of a spot for us to ignore right now. Jokic is the only Nugget that plays all 12 minutes in the first quarter of games.

The others are all rotated out, with Jamal Murray being the starter that plays the fewest minutes in the first period to give him more minutes as the leading man in the second quarter. Through the first four games of this series, Jokic has cleared this line in three of the four games, and the one he went under saw him finish with eight points while taking just six shots while trying to set up teammates.

During the regular season, Jokic led the Nuggets by a full 2.5 points per game in first quarters at 7.9 per game. Those numbers are somewhat inflated due to the absence of Murray for chunks of the year, but that still left points up for grabs for other guys, and Jokic was the one soaking up those chances. Specifically, against the Lakers during the regular season, Jokic was averaging 8.0 points per game in the first period, and Michael Porter Jr. was the only teammate above five in those matchups.

The Lakers haven’t had an answer for Jokic in this series, and he can score at will against any opponent. In Game 4, Jokic had three assists in the first quarter, and that was the most he had had in any game so far in the series.

Jokic is at his best when he is aggressive early in the game because it forces the defense to send extra attention his way or risk giving up too many easy baskets. When they send the help, he kicks out to the shooters to make them pay.

Even if Jokic isn’t aggressive late in the game, I like him to do his damage early on.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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