Best NBA Player Prop Today: Jalen Johnson Pours in Points on Wednesday

Jalen Johnson doesn't have the greatest season-long point totals, but this stat shows why that doesn't matter tonight.

Jalen Johnson dribbles the ball
Jalen Johnson dribbles the ball / Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

After dealing with a small losing streak near the end of February, we bounced back a couple of strong wins to close out the month last week Thursday. Now, after taking a few days off to start the month, we’re back with another player prop to get things rolling.

We have an eight-game slate tonight, but there are a fair number of teams dealing with injuries and playing on the second night of a back-to-back. With that in mind, we’re focusing on just one player for tonight in the form of Jalen Johnson from the Atlanta Hawks.

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NBA Best Player Props Record to Date

  • 2023-24 season record: 20-12-0 (+7.59 units)

Find Gage Bridgford's NBA betting record here.

NBA Best Bet Today

  • Jalen Johnson O16.5 Points (-104) - 1 Unit FanDuel

Jalen Johnson has been one of the breakout players in the NBA this season. He’s sixth in odds to be the NBA’s Most Improved Player, but those odds are disrespectful considering the jump he’s made since last season.

Regardless of that, he’s been balling out for much of the year, and he’s been one of the most consistent performers for a Hawks team that finds themselves 10th in the Eastern Conference without a real shot of moving any further than the ninth seed.

On the year, Johnson is averaging 15.9 points per game while shooting 52.2 percent from the floor. He’s cleared this line in 12 of his last 20 contests, and that includes the Cleveland Cavaliers that he’s facing off with tonight. He’s averaging 17.2 points per game during that stretch while leading the team in minutes per game at 37.2.

Over his last five games, which coincide directly with the absence of Trae Young (finger), Johnson has hit this line in three of those five games, and he’s attempted at least 12 shots in all five of those games.

This matchup doesn’t look the best on paper, with the Cavaliers being the fifth-best defense against power forwards over their last 30 games, but that doesn’t tell the full story. For one, Evan Mobley (ankle) is doubtful for tonight’s game.

For two, the Cavaliers have allowed the starting power forward to hit this lineup in all three matchups this year. They gave up 18 points to De’Andre Hunter on two different occasions, along with 20 points allowed to Johnson their last time out. They gave up 26 to Jayson Tatum last night and had to play a long game to complete the late comeback.

I like Johnson to take advantage of an increased role in a strong matchup tonight to keep his recent string of strong play rolling.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.