Best NBA Player Props Today: Predictions for Damian Lillard, Herbert Jones

Damian Lillard has had a down year by his standards, but this stat shows why his matchup is one to target tonight. While he's been quiet recently, Herbert Jones has this one factor working in his favor tonight.

Damian Lillard (0) drives to the basket
Damian Lillard (0) drives to the basket / Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
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After that big Monday slate that saw us go 1-0 due to the void of Bojan Bogdanovic, we had a small slate yesterday that I wanted no part of due to a lot of injuries and other weirdness in the matchups. Today, we have 10 games to choose from, and we’re back as we try to keep this streak rolling.

There are a lot of props out there to choose from today, but I locked in on my favorite pairing. One is one that I expect to be rather chalky in the form of Damian Lillard from the Milwaukee Bucks, but I like the idea of snagging some quiet value on Herbert Jones from the New Orleans Pelicans

If you want to get in on the action tonight, be sure to sign up for an account at DraftKings Sportsbook. If you do, new users who click the link below will receive $150 in bonus bets when they place their first $5 wager.

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

  • 2023-24 season record: 11-1-0 (+10.18 units)

Find Gage Bridgford's NBA betting record here.

NBA Best Bet Today

  • Damian Lillard (-110) - 1 Unit
  • Herbert Jones (-110) - 1 Unit

Damian Lillard O23.5 Points (-110)

Our first prop of the night is targeting a guy who is starting to find his groove as of late, and I think we could see him put up an explosive performance tonight. Dame is coming off of his overtime game-winner the other night against the Sacramento Kings, and he’s now taking on the Cleveland Cavaliers. Lillard scored 31 against them just a few weeks ago, and he’s hit this mark in three of his last five games overall.

The Cavaliers are just outside the top 10 in points allowed to point guards, but they’ve given up some explosive performances to guards recently with Cam Thomas, Lonnie Walker IV, and Devin Vassell all dropping 20 points on them over their last three games. Lillard is the type of guard who can put up points in bunches if he gets hot. I think he and Donovan Mitchell might have a scoring showdown to decide the winner in this one.

Herbert Jones O1.5 Steals & Blocks (-110)

The second prop for tonight is going to be a bit outside the box, but I think we’re getting good value on Jones here. For the majority of the season, this number has often been 2.5 or a very juiced 1.5. We’re getting it near even money tonight, and it’s a matchup that I think is exploitable. He’s hit this number in 24 of his 38 games this year, including against these same Charlotte Hornets back in December.

In the two games since LaMelo Ball has returned from injury, the Hornets are turning the ball over the fourth-most per game in the league. Meanwhile, in the 20-game stretch that he missed from the end of November until a week ago, they were 15th in that same category. It’s a small sample size, but the team has been turning the ball over a lot. With his long arms, I like Jones to get into the passing lanes a bit in this one.


Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.