After a couple of wins in a row, we came back to Earth on Tuesday night when Franz Wagner just couldn’t get anything going offensively. Tonight, we have a bigger slate with nine games to work with, but, with the trade deadline coming this afternoon, we have to pick our spots carefully.
We’re going back to the Magic again tonight, and it’s one of the players that I think flies under the radar on a team with a fair bit of young talent. Wendell Carter Jr. is our target for the night, and I think he’s in a great spot against the San Antonio Spurs.
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NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- 2023-24 season record: 16-8-0 (+7.94 units)
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NBA Best Bet Today
Wendell Carter Jr. OVER 12.5 rebounds
Since returning from his second extended absence of the season, Carter has been scoring at a strong clip. He’s cleared this line in eight of those 12 games, including putting up 14 against these Spurs a little over a week ago. He’s also scored 15 or more in seven of those eight outings. Usually, when he’s getting his shot to fall, he’s making sure that you’re not sweating his points prop at the end of the night.
One of the biggest keys to his success this season has been his work from 3-point range. He’s shooting better than 40 percent from downtown. That’s nearly five percent better than his previous career-high of 35.6 percent from last season. Through his first 24 games, he was shooting 40.6 percent on 2.5 attempts per game, but, over his last 12, he’s increased his volume to 3.3 attempts per game while increasing his accuracy to 41 percent.
The Spurs are playing on the second night of a back-to-back, which should have them a bit more tired than usual, and, while Victor Wembanyama has played the second night of a handful of back-to-backs this season, he has only played one time when the second game was on the road. If he were to be ruled out, I would expect this line to go up. However, even if he does suit up, it doesn’t automatically shut down Carter. Over their last 30 games, the Spurs are allowing the 2nd-most points, 6th-most rebounds and 9th-most 3-pointers to opposing centers. I like this spot for Wendell tonight.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.