The BetSided team is all in on player props for this NBA season, sharing our favorite and best prop bet picks each day during the year.
On Mother's Day, we have a pair of Game 4s between the Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers and the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks.
Best NBA Prop Bets Record to Date
- NBA Best Prop Bets Record: 276-224-4 (+18.6854 units)
Here are the plays I am looking at for tonight’s slate with all odds via WynnBET:
Best NBA Prop Bets Today
- Tyler Herro OVER 15.5 Points (-105)
- Deandre Ayton UNDER 9.5 Rebounds (+105)
- Luka Doncic UNDER 51.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-115)
Tyler Herro OVER 15.5 Points (-105)
I mentioned Tyler Herro’s points prop as my best bet on today’s episode of Bet & Breakfast, and there’s a few reasons why.
Herro scored just 14 points on 5-of-15 shooting in Miami’s 79-point performance in Game 3, but it was obvious that the Heat were going to have a tough time getting into the paint in that matchup with Joel Embiid back in the lineup.
That lines up perfectly for Herro to really thrive as a jump shooter in Game 4, and the volume has been there for him over his last few games taking 15, 10, 17 and 12 shots over his last four.
The Heat need someone to create their own shot, and who better than Herro who averaged 20.7 points per game in the regular season and won the Sixth Man of the Year award.
If Philly tries to force Miami to take more jump shots, it’s going to be a game where the Heat have to rely on Herro to get things done.
Deandre Ayton UNDER 9.5 Rebounds (+105)
The OVER on Deandre Ayton’s rebounds prop is juiced to -145 at WynnBET, and I feel like it is a trap. Ayton has gone under 9.5 boards in seven of his nine playoff games.
Yes, he finished with 11 boards in Game 3, but I’m not going to let that push me into betting an OVER at that price.
The Suns were middle of the pack in rebounding percentage all season, so even if Ayton has a good game on the glass, I don’t think double-digits is a lock.
Luka Doncic UNDER 51.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-115)
Don’t get this twisted, Luka Doncic has been TERRIFIC in the NBA playoffs.
However, he has also cleared this total just one time in six playoff games, and it came in his 45-point performance in Game 1 of this series.
The Suns haven’t had an answer for Doncic, but he has cooled off in the second half of games. With Jalen Brunson playing more with the ball in his hands this postseason, Doncic has seen his assists per game drop from 8.7 per game in the regular season to 6.8 per game in the postseason.
I think Luka can put up a strong performance, but his number is inflated just enough for me to take the under.