Best NBA Teams to Bet the OVER on This Season (Sixers, Thunder, Jazz Leading League)

The NBA doesn’t return from the All-Star break until later on this week, so I’m taking a look at some season-long trends to help us bet the remainder of the 2023-24 campaign. 

I’ve already highlighted some of the best teams to bet on against the spread (and the worst) this season, so why not look at totals as well? 

While it may seem obvious that high-scoring offenses are the best OVER teams, sometimes that isn’t always the case since they usually have much higher totals in their games. 

So far this season, 13 different teams have hit the OVER in more than half of their games. 

With that in mind, here are the team’s that have gone OVER the total at the highest rate in various scenarios in the 2023-24 season: 

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Data is collected as of Sunday, Feb. 18. 

NBA Best Teams at Hitting the OVER This Season

• Philadelphia 76ers: 32-22 (59.3%)
• Oklahoma City Thunder: 31-22-1 (58.5%)
• Utah Jazz: 32-23-1 (58.2%)
• Golden State Warriors: 30-23 (56.6%)
• Detroit Pistons: 30-23-1 (56.6%)

This is an interesting group, as only the Sixers (No. 6) and Thunder (No. 4) rank in the top 10 in the NBA in offensive rating this season. Not only that, but only three of these teams (OKC, Utah and Detroit) rank in the top 10 in the league in pace. 

On the defensive side of things, Golden State (No. 20), Utah (No. 25) and Detroit (No. 28) are all in the bottom half of the NBA in defensive rating. Still, it’s interesting that so many of the top offenses are not in the top five of the league in terms of their over percentage. 

NBA Best OVER Teams at Home

• Sacramento Kings: 16-7 (69.6%)
• Indiana Pacers: 19-9 (67.9%)
• Atlanta Hawks: 18-10 (64.3%)
• Golden State Warriors: 18-10 (64.3%)
• Milwaukee Bucks: 18-11 (62.1%)

There’s an obvious trend with this one. Every team on this list except Golden State ranks in the top 10 in the NBA in offensive rating and pace at home. So, these teams love to get out and run in front of the home crowd, and they’re doing it at an efficient rate. 

Also, other than Milwaukee, the four other teams on this list (Warriors at No. 24) rank in the bottom 10 in the NBA in defensive rating at home this season. 

NBA Best OVER Teams on Road

• Los Angeles Lakers: 20-8 (71.4%)
• Toronto Raptors: 19-9 (67.9%)
• Detroit Pistons: 18-9 (66.7%)
• Philadelphia 76ers: 16-10 (61.5%)
• Chicago Bulls: 16-11-1 (59.3%)
• Oklahoma City Thunder: 16-11 (59.3%)

Four of the 10 worst defensive teams on the road this season? You guessed it, the Los Angeles Lakers, Toronto Raptors, Chicago Bulls and Detroit Pistons. 

Meanwhile, Philly is No. 3 in the league in offensive rating on the road while the Thunder clock in at No. 7. OKC is impressive on the road, as the team is No. 6 in defensive rating, meaning the offense is carrying a lot of these OVERs.

NBA Best OVER Teams as Favorites

• Washington Wizards: 3-1 (75.0%)
• Utah Jazz: 10-5 (66.7%)
• Philadelphia 76ers: 23-15 (60.5%)
• Portland Trail Blazers: 3-2 (60.0%)
• Sacramento Kings: 21-14-2 (60.0%)
• Atlanta Hawks: 18-12 (60.0%)

NBA Best OVER Teams as Underdogs

• Los Angeles Clippers: 6-3 (66.7%)
• Detroit Pistons: 30-18-1 (62.5%)
• Golden State Warriors: 13-8 (61.9%)
• Los Angeles Lakers: 15-10 (60.0%)
• Indiana Pacers: 17-13-1 (56.7%)
• Chicago Bulls: 17-13-1 (56.7%)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.