Best NFL OVER/UNDER Bet to Place for Super Bowl 58 (Ride with Chiefs ball control offense and second half defense)

Dec 25, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs safety Justin Reid (20) is introduced
Dec 25, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs safety Justin Reid (20) is introduced / Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

After almost two weeks of hype and circus we've finally (almost) made it to the final NFL game of the 2023-2024 season, the Super Bowl, and the final bet of the season.

There is some comfort for bettors in having multiple games to choose from, as options are generally a good thing, and not every line is conducive to a positive outcome.

There's no such luck this week, but that doesn't mean we shy away from the task at hand, choosing a side on the Super Bowl game total.

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Super Bowl 58 OVER/UNDER Bet

While I have strong opinions on one team's total, that doesn't mean this is an easy choice, even with the number edging higher in some places as the week moves forward.

All season long, I've thought that while Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce get the headlines, interviews, and awards, it's the Kansas City defense that wins the games.

That thought process is reflected in the metrics that show the Chiefs are second in the league, allowing only 16.8 points per game, including 13.3 over the last three, and giving up less than 300 total yards per contest.

The flip side is those are averages and the 49ers are not an average offense coming in second in scoring and first in yards per game during the NFL season.

As evidenced by their first two drives against the Ravens, the Chiefs have morphed into a ball-control offense, going on long, sustained drives that eat clock and reduce opportunities to put points on the board.

Those long drives not only limit opponent scoring opportunities but also limit the Chiefs' possessions and points.

As always, when taking an under, the potential for defensive scores and turnovers are a concern and should always be factored into your analysis and decision-making.

While others see the indoor facility in Las Vegas as an opportunity for points to be scored, I see it as a perfect setup for kickers to thrive, both punters pinning opponents deep and coaches opting for a "sure" field goal instead of opting to go for it in questionable field position.

I'll admit that there's likely to be some sweat if you ride the under with me in this one, as I see a 24-21 or 27-20 type final either way.

To that end, numbers on Super Bowl bets tend to go higher as the game gets closer and every half-point is important, so the timing of your bet could be crucial.

I'll leave you with this: Don't despair if there are points scored in the first half, the Chiefs have been masters of the halftime chess board, allowing only 7.6 points per game in the second half and going 18-2 to the under in second halves this season.

PICK: 49ers vs Chiefs UNDER 47.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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