We've finally made it to the divisional round of the NFL playoffs and admittedly feeling pretty good after last week's results.
But the NFL can humble a bettor real quick and the lines for this week's games appear to be extremely efficient making the choices tougher.
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Texans vs Ravens Game Total Prediction
Earlier this week I wrote that I believe the Texans will hit their team total against an excellent Ravens defense and given that I expect Baltimore to win the game fairly easily, this sets up as an over for me.
The Ravens are putting up almost 32 points per game at home and the Texans defense, while 10th in points allowed on the road, is still nicked up with Jerry Hughes, Sheldon Rankins, Will Anderson, Jr. and Jonathan Greenard all missing Wednesday's practice.
Houston's defense held up against Joe Flacco and the Browns last week, but Lamar Jackson and the Ravens will shake off the rust and hit their stride on their way to the AFC Championship game.
Pick: Texans vs Ravens OVER 43.5 points
Packers vs 49ers Game Total Prediction
San Francisco averages 27.3 points at home and I don't see any reason they don't hit that number against this Green Bay defense.
The question is what will Jordan Love and the Packers do against the third-best scoring defense in the NFL on the road?
Love has been fantastic since mid-November, throwing for 21 touchdowns against a lone interception and he'll get the 49ers a time or two this weekend.
This is a bet on Love coming back to earth a bit against a very good defense on the road and the game script playing out in a fashion that favors the under.
Pick: Packers vs 49ers UNDER 50.5 points
Buccaneers vs Lions Game Total Prediction
I've already picked the Lions to go under on their team total in this game and while the Buccaneers have been a fantastic story with Baker Mayfield running the show, I think they struggle this week in Detroit.
The Lions give up 21.8 on the road, while the Bucs score 23.0 away from home and that's just how I see this game playing out, with the Lions coming out on top by a 24-21 type score.
Statistically, the Lions defense isn't going to wow anyone, but in their last three home games they've given up 20, 17 and 23. Dan Campbell will have his team ready to play.
Pick: Buccaneers vs Lions UNDER 48.5 points
Chiefs vs Bills Game Total Prediction
Except for an offensive offsides call this game could have been played in Kansas City and that could make a difference as the Chiefs average about a point and a half more at home than they do on the road while Buffalo averages 5.8 more at home than on the road.
I've been saying it all season, but this Kansas City team is led by its defense, not Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce.
The Bills also have a solid defense and are playing at home, giving up only 280 yards per game at home.
The possibility of defensive or special teams scores shouldn't be discounted and if that happens it could spell trouble.
On the flip side, the Chiefs continue to drop passes and kick field goals, which is a win for the under in almost every scenario.
My read on this game is two extremely hyped quarterbacks driving the total higher, while the defenses are the real MVPs as the teams combined 24-12 record to the under indicates.
Chiefs vs Bills UNDER 45.5 points
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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