With just seven games remaining in the 2023-2024 NFL schedule, there are fewer games to choose from, but on the flip side, we theoretically know more about the teams that remain alive.
Whether we know more is to be determined, but at least last week the betting gods and luck were on my side.
How else can I explain the Cowboys getting blasted while still hitting the over on their team total?
Let's hope that streak continues as we delve into this week's best team total bets for the Divisional Round.
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Texans vs Ravens Team Total Prediction
I was on the Texans last week, both on the team total and against the spread, but this week is a different animal.
I'm a C.J. Stroud fan and believe the young quarterback will eventually lead the Texans to the promised land, just not this week against this Ravens team.
This bet is not about Houston beating Baltimore on the road as an almost double-digit underdog, it's about the Texans and C.J. Stroud getting to 17 points.
The Ravens have the top-scoring defense in the league, giving up only 16.5 points per game overall and 17.8 in Baltimore.
The Texans and Stroud are clicking and by kickoff time many of the Ravens will have not played since December 31.
I don't think the Texans win, but with Stroud, his merry band of no-name receivers, Devin Singletary running with purpose and Ka'imi Fairbairn kicking footballs they will get to 17.
Pick: Texans OVER 16.5 points
Packers vs 49ers Team Total Prediction
I'll admit to considering taking the over on the San Francisco team total at 30.5 because the Green Bay Packers defense is middle of the road at best by NFL standards.
Ultimately, I opted to go the other way for several reasons.
First, the 49ers are coming off a bye week and I expect some rust. Even if it's just a drive, that can make the difference between 28 and 31.
Secondly, San Francisco only averages 28.9 points per game and even less (27.3) at home.
Finally, the 49ers are a ball-control offense, coming in at No. 7 in the league in time of possession and I believe the game script will lead to a more conservative fourth quarter.
If you decide to take the over here, I get it and can see that happening, but in the end, the most likely scenario in my mind has the 49ers at 30 or less.
Pick: 49ers UNDER 30.5 points
Buccaneers vs Lions Team Total Prediction
For the first half last week, the Lions looked like a juggernaut and then they totaled 3 points in the second half against the Rams while barely holding on for the win.
This week they face a good Bucs defense that allowed only 20.9 points on the road during the season.
Detroit has been a wagon at home, averaging almost 30 per contest, but has only reached this number once in their last three games overall.
Wild man Dan Campbell is liable to do anything and sometimes that works for you and sometimes it works against you.
The scenario I envision here is pretty similar to last week's game: Get out to a lead and hold on for dear life.
Pick: Lions UNDER 27.5 points
Chiefs vs Bills Team Total Prediction
The answer to the question is two.
The question is how many of the 18 Kansas City Chief opponents scored more than 23.5 points this season?
In four of their six losses, Kansas City gave up 20 points twice, 21 points twice, and then 24 to Denver and 27 to Green Bay.
This week's game is in Buffalo and those games where they gave up more than 23.5 were also on the road, seemingly cracking the door for a Buffalo team total over.
Current forecasts for Sunday night in Buffalo call for 20 degrees and a 10-15 MPH wind, which might sound like a vacation after last week for both teams.
The Bills average 29.7 per game in Buffalo and even into December and January they put up 31 on Dallas, 27 on New England, and 31 on Pittsburgh at home.
Josh Allen was spectacular last week and if he's spectacular again this week, the Bills likely exceed their total.
Allen will be good, but I'm betting he's not as good as last week and the Chiefs hold the Bills under 23.5.
Pick: Bills UNDER 23.5 points
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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