Best NFL Over/Under Bets to Make for NFC and AFC Championship Games

Breaking down the best bets to place on the total for the AFC and NFC Championship Games this week.

Jan 20, 2024; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) rolls out to throw
Jan 20, 2024; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) rolls out to throw / Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

Last week's over/under bets were 2-2, but truth be told I didn't feel great about my picks after taking three unders and a single over in the divisional round.

That said, I feel lucky to have gotten the one under given the way the Baltimore Ravens worked the Houston Texans in the second half.

Here's to putting lessons learned to work and going 2-0 in the Conference Championships!

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Chiefs vs Ravens Game Total Prediction

A matchup of the top two scoring defenses and two of the top eight total defenses (yards allowed per game) in the league kicks off Conference Championship weekend and the natural tendency is to find reasons to take the under.

There's rain in the forecast with temperatures in the fifties or high forties, with a 10-15 miles per hour wind.

Both of these teams are used to much worse weather and I don't expect that to have much, if any, impact on the game as currently forecast.

I'm not sure we need a ton of stats to explain why I'm taking the over here, other than the Ravens averaging 32.1 points a game at home, but this seems relatively simple.

It's a matchup of two of the best quarterbacks in the game, one playing in his sixth straight championship game (Mahomes) and the other (Jackson) is likely the league MVP this season.

Sure, there's a chance Lamar struggles against a very good Kansas City defense, and the Chiefs haven't exactly it up the scoreboard this season.

On the other hand, a 24-21 game goes over at this number and with two of the best quarterbacks of this generation along with two of the game's best kickers tips this to the over for me.

PICK: Chiefs vs Ravens OVER 44.5

Lions vs 49ers Game Total Prediction

I've already shared that I think the Lions defense is going to struggle with or without Deebo Samuel on the field for the San Francisco 49ers.

The 49ers average almost 27 points per game at home and I think they score alteast 31 Sunday.

If so, that leaves us needing 20 or less from the Lions, who average 24.1 on the road this season and have scored 24 and 31 in the first two playoff games, though both of those were at home.

The weather looks good in San Francisco, but the Lions are an indoor team and we should expect some bumps along the way, though ultimately I believe they add enough to the total to get us to 51.

Jared Goff is 52 of 70 (74.3%) for three touchdowns and zero interceptions in the postseason, while Jahmyr Gibbs is averaging 5.8 yards per carry and Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta have 15 and 12 catches respectively for the Lions as they've racked up 757 total yards in their two playoff games.

This is more of a contrarian play, but the Detroit defense has been sketchy against the pass for the last month plus, allowing five straight opponents to throw for over 300 yards.

The 49ers do the bulk of the work, but the Lions score enough to get us to the over.

PICK: Lions vs 49ers OVER 50.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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