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Best NFL Over/Under Bets to Make for Week 5

Breaking down the best bets to place on the total for week 5 games in the NFL.

By Marty Coleman

Sep 22, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) scrambles during the first quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Dieb-Imagn Images
Sep 22, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) scrambles during the first quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Dieb-Imagn Images / Andrew Dieb-Imagn Images
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Week 6 starts on Thursday for this week's best over/under bets in the NFL when Tampa Bay and Atlanta face off in an NFC South divisional game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Game Total Prediction

There are a variety of ways to get action on this game as the Buccaneers come into this week 5 matchup averaging 24.3 points per contest, but only 20.0 on the road.

Meanwhile, Atlanta averages 18.8 per contest and only 17.7 at home.

Those are small sample sizes as we're just four weeks into the 2024 season.

They are relevant to the conversation, but what's more relevant to me is what happens on Thursdays after a team has played a game the previous week.

In the season opener when the Ravens and Chiefs did not have a game the previous weekend the teams combined for 47 points.

Then in week two, the teams combined for 41, then 27, then 35. The only time the Thursday game went over the total for this game was week 1 when the teams didn't play the week prior.

Given that and these teams relative strengths, I like the under in this one.

PICK: Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Falcons UNDER 43.5 points

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals Game Total Prediction

Sometimes my initial take on a game total can be changed by new information and that's the case here.

I was originally on the under when this one opened at 51, but now that it's all the way down to 49 and diving into the numbers more, I'm going in the other direction.

On one level it's pretty simple: Two top-10 scoring offenses against two defenses in the bottom half of the league in giving up points.

The trends are also pointing to the good chance of an over in this one as the total has gone over in six of Cincinnati's last seven games against Baltimore in Cincinnati and the over has hit four times in the last five Bengal home games no matter the opponent.

PICK: Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals OVER 49 points

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos Game Total Prediction

This game features two offenses in the bottom half of the league in scoring, including a Denver squad that comes in at 28th, averaging just 15.5 points per contest.

The Raiders don't reach the 20-point per-game mark (19.5) and the average is even lower on the road.

While the Raiders defense has been porous, Denver's squad allows the third-fewest points in the league and in their only home game limited the Steelers to 13 points.

After throwing 36 times and averaging 6 yards per attempt in a win in Tampa, Bo Nix threw the ball 25 times for 60 yards last week (2.4 yards per attempt).

The Broncos recipe for winning does not involve shootouts and they'll play slow and close to the vest with the rookie quarterback.

PICK: Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos UNDER 36.5 points

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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