Top Shelf Picks: Best NHL Bets Today (Fade the Red Wings)

Breaking down the three best bets to wager on for Thursday night NHL action, including a pick for the game between the Arizona Coyotes and Detroit Red Wings.

Mar 12, 2024; Buffalo, New York, USA;  Detroit Red Wings center Michael Rasmussen (27) waits for the
Mar 12, 2024; Buffalo, New York, USA; Detroit Red Wings center Michael Rasmussen (27) waits for the / Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports

An overtime loss in Vancouver kept us from a profitable night of NHL betting on Wednesday, but we march on as we prepare for Thursday night's action.

If you have been reading my Top Shelf Picks article, you'll know that there are certain teams I've been loving to fade lately. Well, it shouldn't come as a surprise that I'm fading two of them today with one of them being the Detroit Red Wings, who are at home to the Arizona Coyotes.

Let's dive into my best bets.

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NHL Best Bets Today

  • Coyotes +140 vs. Red Wings
  • Maple Leafs -135 vs. Flyers
  • Kraken -165 vs. Capitals

Coyotes vs. Red Wings prediction

As I have written about every time the Red Wings have played the past few weeks, they're in for some major regression and we've been seeing that. They enter tonight's game on a six-game losing streak. We've been cashing in by betting against them so I see no reason to stop now.

Over their last 25 games, they're 26th in CORSI% and 31st in 5-on-5 expected goal percentage. There's very few teams I'd want to bet on them as favorites right now and while the Coyotes' record isn't impressive, they still outrank the Red Wings in almost every metric of late. I'll back Arizona as a road underdog.

Maple Leafs vs. Flyers prediction

Any team that has been struggling to find the back of the net is going to have a tough time against the high-octane offense that is the Toronto Maple Leafs. That spells trouble for the Flyers, who rank just 26th in shooting percentage over their last 25 games.

The Flyers are another team that has seen some regression of late, going just 5-4-1 in their last 10 games. I'll back the Leafs tonight as road favorites in Philadelphia.

Capitals vs. Kraken prediction

We faded the Capitals last night and the Oilers trounced them, beating Washington by a final score of 7-2. We're going to continue to fade the Capitals and bet against them again tonight when they play in Seattle on the second half of a back-to-back. The Capitals have been one of the worst teams in the NHL during 5-on-5 play over the last 25 games and their special teams haven't been much better.

The Kraken aren't exactly anything to write home about, ranking around middle of the pack in most statistics, including 18th in 5-on-5 expected goal percentage, but they're still significantly above the Caps.

I'll take Seattle as a home favorite on Thursday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!