Best NRFI and YRFI Bets Today (Guardians vs Blue Jays Among Top Matchups to Target)

Jose Berrios surrendered at least one home run in nine of his last 10 starts
Jose Berrios surrendered at least one home run in nine of his last 10 starts / John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Folks, the No Run First Inning (NRFI) and Yes Run First Inning (YRFI) bets are heating up. After another clean sweep on Wednesday, I'm 10-3 over the last week on these bad boys.

We've got 14 games on today's slate with a number of marquee matchups as we approach the end of the regular season. The BetSided team has you set with previews for each contest, but it's time to keep this hot streak rolling.

Using odds from WynnBET Sportsbook, here are my favorite NRFI/YRFI bets of the day:

Best NRFI and YRFI Bets Today

Guardians vs Blue Jays YRFI (-110)

Both the Cleveland Guardians and Toronto Blue Jays rank in the top five in the American League in first inning score percentage, while neither Cal Quantrill or Jose Berrios inspire much confidence on the mound.

Quantrill has a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) over 7.12 in two of his last three starts and ranks in the 17th percentile in expected batting average. He's got a 4.96 ERA on the road, and Toronto's deadly lineup can make him pay.

Berrios, meanwhile, has a 5.91 ERA in the first inning and has allowed at least one home run in nine of his last 10 starts. With a 5.50 expected ERA that's the worst among all qualified pitchers, Berrios is a starter I want to fade at every opportunity.

Each offense is capable of putting up early runs, especially against these underwhelming arms.

Phillies vs Mets NRFI (-140)

For my money, this is the best pitching matchup of the day. Ranger Suarez and Max Scherzer are pitching like two of the best starters in MLB. While each lineup is dangerous, I'm inclined to back these hot pitchers.

Suarez hasn't allowed a first inning run in seven consecutive starts and has held his opponent scoreless in the opening frame in seven of his nine road outings. He's posted an expected FIP under 3.93 for seven straight appearances, while the Phillies allow a first inning run at the lowest rate on the road in MLB (18.87%).

That Scherzer isn't half-bad, himself. He's allowed just one earned run in the first inning in 15 starts and sports a 1.77 ERA at home. Philadelphia scores in the first on the road at a bottom-five rate in baseball (also 18.87%) and I don't see their lineup getting to Mad Max early.

Back the NRFI and enjoy the finest pitching duel of the day.

Yankees vs Red Sox YRFI (-125)

The YRFI is 3-1 in Domingo German's starts this year as he's struggled to prevent home runs and walks. He's got a 6.66 expected ERA and the Boston Red Sox offense is capable of making German pay.

That being said, the real reason I love the YRFI in this game is because Aaron Judge and the New York Yankees' lineup should tee off on Nathan Eovaldi. Since returning from injury, Eovaldi has a 7.27 ERA and has two poor outings against these Yankees already this year.

New York scores in the first at the second-highest rate in MLB (35.71%) and I expect some early scoring tonight.

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.