Best NRFI and YRFI Bets Today (Nationals & Mets Highlight Trio of Bets)

Charlie Morton has struggled on the road as the Braves take on the Diamondbacks today
Charlie Morton has struggled on the road as the Braves take on the Diamondbacks today / Todd Kirkland/GettyImages

Welcome back to regular life after an extended weekend. I hope you feel refreshed, energized and ready to take on today's MLB slate.

There's bad weather throughout the country and even worse pitching matchups in today's games, so we've got plenty of value on the board for some classic No Run First Inning (NRFI) and Yes Run First Inning (YRFI) bets.

I've crunched the numbers, poured over the analysis, and even did a rain dance for luck. Maybe the bad weather is my fault.

Anyway, let's get to it. Here are my favorite NRFI and YRFI bets today, using the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Best NRFI and YRFI Bets Today

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets YRFI (-125)

These offenses are raking right now, with both teams ranking in the top-10 in OPS in May. They're two of the best first-inning bets in MLB as well, as the Nationals lead the league in first-inning scoring percentage (42%) and the Mets rank fourth (40%). This is one of the few games that the weather won't be an issue, and each starting pitcher can be knocked around.

Patrick Corbin has a 6.86 ERA on the road and has been one of the very worst starting pitchers in all of baseball. Just look at his MLB Statcast Pitching Profile from Baseball Savant:

Good luck stopping the Mets with that arsenal. On the other end, Trevor Williams has a 4.37 ERA and though he's improving, the Nationals have the third-highest OPS on the road of any team. All it takes is one swing, and I love the chances of an early run with this dreadful pitching matchup.

Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays NRFI (-120)

This is the best pitching matchup on the slate with one of the lowest totals on the board. Lucas Giolito and Kevin Gausman are monsters in the first inning. The NRFI is 24-3 since 2020 when Giolito pitches on the road, and it's 8-1 in Gausman's starts this year.

Neither lineup is particularly scary, as the Blue Jays have scored a first-inning run in just 31.82% of their home games and the White Sox have notched one in only 22.73% of their road contests. Frankly, the odds should be somewhere closer to the neighborhood of -140, so we're getting great value on the NRFI here.

Braves vs Diamondbacks YRFI (-125)

I got into the specifics of why I love the over here, but the same logic applies to the first inning as well. These pitchers are bad and prone to serving up home runs. Atlanta and Arizona happen to be two of the premier power-hitting teams in the league, so I expect runs early and often.

31 combined runs were scored in Humberto Castellanos' last two starts, and the over is 8-1 when Charlie Morton pitches this year. Arizona gives up first-inning runs at the third-highest rate in baseball at home, while the Braves allow a run in the first inning at the fifth-highest rate on the road.

We just need one crack of the bat, and I have a feeling we'll get a couple in the opening frame.

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.