Best NRFI and YRFI Bets Today (Shane McClanahan and Jesus Luzardo Set to Dominate)

Jesus Luzardo hasn't allowed a first inning run in five starts since returning from injury
Jesus Luzardo hasn't allowed a first inning run in five starts since returning from injury / Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Scoring in the first inning is incredibly important in MLB. After all, no team has ever come back from a gigantic deficit or anything super devastating like that. That'd be heartbreaking, but nope, never happened to me.

I may never forgive the Philadelphia Phillies for last night's debacle, but I'm still targeting their matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks today in my favorite No Run First Inning (NRFI) and Yes Run First Inning (YRFI) bets.

Let's check those wagers out, using odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Best NRFI and YRFI Bets Today

Rays vs Marlins NRFI (-175)

I know these odds seem massive, but hear me out. -175 gives an implied probability of 63.64%, so we need to hit the bet 64% of the time to maintain profit. With Shane McClanahan taking on Jesús Luzardo, I think our chances of success are closer to 75 or 80%. Thus, value!

McClanahan handily leads MLB with a 2.27 expected FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) while the Miami Marlins have MLB's worst OPS against left-handed pitchers this month. Miami's lineup is also the worst in the sport at scoring early, plating a first inning run only 15.63% of the time.

It's understandable if you're unfamiliar with Luzardo, but he hasn't allowed a first inning run in five starts since returning from injury. That includes difficult matchups against the Dodgers and Braves, so the Tampa Bay Rays' lineup won't phase him. The Rays rank 22nd in OPS against lefty's this month, and Luzardo is in spectacular form.

Trust both pitchers and grab the value on the NRFI despite the heavy juice.

Mariners vs Tigers (-125)

Did you notice the eyes emoji in that tweet next to George Kirby's name? If not, pay more attention! There's money to be made in those details.

Kirby's control is absurdly impressive, and I don't foresee the Detroit Tigers' pathetic offense scoring on him. Detroit scores in the first inning at the third-worst rate in baseball with MLB's worst OPS against right-handed pitchers on the season.

I'm impressed with Matt Manning of late too, as he's showcasing the ability that made him the No. 9 overall pick in the 2016 MLB Draft. He allowed just one run over his last two starts, spanning 13 innings, while the Seattle Mariners rank 22nd in OPS against righty's this month.

At these odds, the NRFI in this matchup is my favorite bet on the slate.

Phillies vs Diamondbacks NRFI (-140)

These dang Philadelphia Phillies. At least NRFI savant Aaron Nola pitches today. He's held his opponent scoreless in the first inning in 21 of 25 starts and just threw a complete-game shutout against Cincinnati. The Arizona Diamondbacks are below-average at first inning scoring percentage, while the Phillies allow early runs at the second-stingiest rate in MLB.

Zac Gallen may be even better than Nola. He's allowed a first inning run just four times in 24 outings and has an ongoing 27.1 inning scoreless streak. The dude looks unhittable, and the Phillies have one of the worst first inning offenses on the road in the sport, scoring just 20% of the time.

This should be a fantastic pitcher's dual, so grab the NRFI and enjoy.

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.